Halil Cem SAYIN, Aysel ÖZTÜRKÇÜ AKÇAY, Gamze SEVİMLİ ÖRGÜN

Ertelenmiş gelirlerdeki değişimlerin gelecekteki finansal performansa etkileri: Borsa İstanbul'dan kanıtlar

Raporlanan gelirler, bir firmanın geçmiş performansının değerlendirilmesine ve gelecekteki performansının tahmin edilmesine olanak sağlayarak yatırımcıların doğru kararlar almasına yardımcı olmaktadır. Bu sebeple gelirin ne zaman muhasebeleştirilmesi gerektiği konusu muhasebe teorisinin temel sorularından biridir ve finansal performansın ölçülmesinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ertelenmiş gelirlerdeki değişimlerin Borsa İstanbul'da faaliyetlerini sürdüren firmaların gelecekteki finansal performansının bir göstergesi olup olmadığını tespit etmektir. Bu doğrultuda, Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören 195 finansal olmayan firmanın 2012-2020 yıllarına ait verilerden yararlanılmış ve ertelenmiş gelirdeki değişimlerin gelecekteki finansal performans üzerindeki etkisi panel regresyon analizi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Gelecekteki finansal performans; gelecekteki satış büyümeleri, gelecekteki kâr marjı ve gelecekteki varlık getirisi ile ölçülerek ertelenmiş gelirdeki değişimler ile ilişkilendirilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, ertelenmiş gelirdeki değişimlerin gelecekteki satış büyümeleri ve gelecekteki varlık getirisini artırdığı tespit edilirken; net kâr marjı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca çalışmada kontrol değişkeni olarak kullanılan kaldıraç oranı ve nakit akış oranı değişkenlerinin gelecekteki finansal performans üzerinde anlamlı etkilerinin olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal Performans, Ertelenmiş Gelirdeki Değişimler, Panel Veri Analizi

The effects of changes in deferred revenues on future financial performance: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul

Reported revenues help investors make the right decision by providing a firm's past performance to be evaluated and its future performance to be predicted. That’s why, the issue of when revenue should be recorded is one of the fundamental questions of accounting theory and has an important place in determining financial performance. The purpose of this study is to determine whether changes in deferred revenue are an indicator of the financial performance of companies operating in Borsa Istanbul. Accordingly, the data of 195 non-financial companies traded in Borsa Istanbul for the years from 2012 to 2020 were used and the effect of changes in deferred revenue on future financial performance was estimated by panel regression analysis. Future financial performance is associated with changes in deferred revenue measured by future sales growth, future profit margins and future return on assets. According to the results of the analysis, as it was determined that the changes in deferred revenue increased the future sales growth and the future return on assets, it was concluded that there was no statistically significant effect on the net profit margin. Morever, it was determined that the leverage ratio and cash flow rate variables used as control variables in the study, have significant effect on future financial performance.

Keywords:

Financial Performance, Deferred Revenue Changes, Panel Data Analysis,

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