Halil İbrahim BULUT, Bünyamin ER

3035

The accuracy of earnings forecasts disclosed in IPO prospectuses: The case of the Turkish IPO companies

Bu çalışmada 2000-2007 döneminde Türkiye'de ilk halka arz olan firmaların yapmış oldukları kâr tahminlerinin doğruluğu araştırılmıştır. Türkiye'deki halka arz firmaları için kâr tahminlerinin açıklanması isteğe bağlı bir durumdur. Bu araştırmada kâr tahminlerinin doğruluğu, tahmin hatası, mutlak tahmin hatası ve düzeltilmiş tahmin hatası ile ölçülmüştür. Firma büyüklüğü, tahmin dönemi uzunluğu, finansal kaldıraç ve yönetici sahiplik düzeyi gibi firmalara ilişkin bir takım özellikler test edilmiştir. Ayrıca yatırım bankası ve denetim firması itibar etkisi de test edilmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar, diğer birçok ülkede açıklanan tahminlerde olduğu gibi Türkiye'deki firmalann da kârlarını yüksek (ortalama %13,44) tahmin ettiklerini göstermiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye'deki ilk halka arz firmaları tarafından açıklanan kâr tahminlerinin faydalı bilgiler sağladığı şeklinde değerlendirilebilir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:

karlılık, doğruluk

Halka arz izahnamelerinde açıklanan kar tahminlerinin doğruluğu: Türkiye örneği

This paper examines the accuracy of earnings forecasts made by Turkish Initial Public Offering (IPO) companies during the period the year 2000 to the year 2007. It is a voluntary requirement for the Turkish IPOs to furnish earnings forecasts. The accuracy of earnings forecasts is measured by forecast errors, absolute forecast errors and squared forecast errors in this paper. A number of company specific characteristics such as size, age, forecast interval, gearing and proportion of shares retained by owners are tested. Additionally, both underwriter and auditing firm reputation are tested as well. The results of this study show that like IPO forecasts disclosed in most other countries, IPO forecasts disclosed by Turkish companies do overestimate their earnings, on average, by 13.44 %. On an overall basis, the findings of this study can be intrepreted to mean that IPO forecasts disclosed by Turkish companies provide reliable information.
Keywords:

profitability, accuracy,

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ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 1010-9935
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2018
  • Yayıncı: ODTÜ İİBF
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