Gönül Yüce AKINCI, MERTER AKINCI, ÖMER YILMAZ

2930

Demand following or supply leading? A panel data analysis for developed, developing, and less developed countries

Bu çalışmada; gelişmiş, gelişmekte olan ve azgelişmiş ülkelerde finansal kalkınma ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler dengesiz panel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizleri kullanılarak 1980 – 2011 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Pedroni eşbütünleşme analiz sonuçları dikkate alınan bütün ülkeler için finansal kalkınma ile iktisadi büyüme arasında eşbütünleşik ilişkilerin varlığını ortaya koymuş, ancak Kao eşbütünleşme analizi ise azgelişmiş ülkeler için ilgili değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin geçerli olduğunu göstermiştir. Granger nedensellik analizi bulguları, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için finansal kalkınma ile iktisadi büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğunu ortaya koyarken, azgelişmiş ülkeler için reel iktisadi büyümeden finansal kalkınmaya doğru sadece tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisine ulaşılmıştır. Bu durum, azgelişmiş ülke grubu için talep takibi sürecinin geçerli olduğunu yansıtmaktadır.

Talep takibi mi, arz önderliği mi? Gelişmiş, gelişmekte olan ve azgelişmiş ülkeler için bir panel veri analizi

In this paper, the linkages between financial development and economic growth in developed, developing and less developed countries are investigated using unbalanced panel cointegration and causality analysis in the period of 1980 – 2011. The results of the Pedroni cointegration analysis show the existence of cointegration relations between financial development and economic growth for whole country groups, but Kao cointegration analysis indicates the long – run relationship between the related variables for the group of less developed countries. The results of Granger causality analysis show that there is bidirectional causality relationship between financial development and economic growth for developed and developing countries. However, for less developed countries only unidirectional causal nexus is obtained running from real economic growth to financial development. This means that demand following process is valid for less developed country group.
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ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 1010-9935
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2018
  • Yayıncı: ODTÜ İİBF
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