Biyo-yakıt piyasalarındaki gelişmeler: Global kısmi denge modeli ile etki
Dünya piyasalarında gıda fiyatları 2002 yılından bu yana sürekli olarak yükselmektedir. Özellikle gıda ürünleri fiyat artışının yoksullar ve gıda güvenliği üzerindeki olumsuz etkisi, fiyat artışlarını tetikleyen faktörlerin ortaya çıkarılmasına yönelik ampirik çalışmalara da zemin hazırlamaktadır. Literatür, gıda fiyat artışları arkasındaki sebepleri arz ve talep yönlü olarak yapısal faktörler, uluslararası finans piyasalarındaki gelişmeler ve ülke ticaret politikaları altında incelemekte ve yapısal faktörler içinde biyo-enerji üretimine/talebine büyük önem atfetmektedir. Bu çalışmada, dünya biyo-enerji üretimi ve talebinde büyük ülkelerin orta ve uzun dönemde saptadıkları üretim/talep hedeflerinin dünya gıda fiyatları üzerindeki olası etkileri çok-ülkeli, çok-mallı bir kısmi denge tarım ticaret modeli ile analiz edilmektedir. Bulgular, biyo-yakıt politikaları sonucunda gıda bazlı üretim alanlarının yakıt bazlı üretime kaydığı argümanını desteklemekte ve gıda hammadde piyasalarında karşılanamayan talebin ise gıda fiyatlarında yükselmeye yol açtığını göstermekteir.
Developments in the bio-fuel markets: Impact assessment by using a global patial equilibrium model
World food prices have been rising continuously since the beginning of year 2002. The particular negative impact of food price rise on poor people and on food security has initiated empirical studies that try to reveal the factors that trigger the price rise. The literature categorizes these factors as supply and demand side structural factors, the developments in the international financial markets and country-wise border policies and puts significance on the increase in bio-fuel demand/production among the other structural factors. In this study, the effects of medium to long term production/demand targets of big actors in bio-fuel markets are analyzed on world food prices by employing an agricultural multi-country, multi-commodity partial equilibrium trade model. The findings support the argument that bio-fuel oriented policies cause a shift in agricultural production towards bio-fuel production and yield in a rise in food prices due to increasing excess demand in the food commodities.
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- ISSN: 1010-9935
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2018
- Yayıncı: ODTÜ İİBF