Hasan Törehan BABACAN, Ömer YÜKSEK, Fatih SAKA

Yapay zeka ve sezgisel regresyon yöntemlerinin yağış-akış modellemesi için performans değerlendirmesi: Aksu Deresi için bir uygulama

Bu çalışmada, Aksu Deresi üzerinde, günlük toplam yağış (P) ve günlük ortalama debi (Q) değerleri kullanılarak Yağış-Akış Modelleri geliştirilmiş ve gelecek debi tahmini yapılmıştır. Yağış-Akış modellerinde kullanılan sayısal yöntemlerin Yağış-Akış sürecini açıklayabilme performansları kıyaslanmıştır. Yağış-Akış sürecini açıklamada, Yapay Zeka (AI) yöntemlerinden, Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) ve Adaptif Sinirsel Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi (ANFIS) kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca Sezgisel Regresyon (HR) yöntemi olarak Çok Değişkenli Uyarlanabilir Regresyon Eğrileri (MARS) ve Destek Vektör Makineleri (SVM) kullanılmıştır. Yöntemlerin performansı Hata Ortalamalarının Karesinin Karekökü (RMSE), Korelasyon Katsayısı (R) ve Mutlak Hataların Ortalaması (MAE) katsayıları ile belirlenmiş ve kıyaslanmıştır. Denenen AI yöntemlerinin performansları çok yakın olsa da ANFIS yöntemi ile oluşturulan Yağış-Akış modelinde en düşük hata değeri elde edilmiştir. Denenen diğer yöntemlerde ise en yüksek performans değeri MARS ile oluşturulan Yağış-Akış modelinde gözlenmiştir. AI, HR ve diğer yöntemlerde yapılan performans değerlendirmesinde, MARS yönteminin AI yöntemlerine göre Yağış-Akış sürecini açıklayabilme performansının daha yüksek olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yağış-Akış Modellemesi, Yapay Zeka, Sezgisel Regresyon, Aksu Deresi

Performance evaluation of artificial ıntelligence and heuristic regression methods for rainfall-runoff modelling: An application in Aksu Stream

Rainfall-Runoff Models were developed by using the daily total precipitation (P) and daily mean discharge (Q) values on Aksu Stream and future discharges were predicted. The performances of numerical methods to explain the Rainfall-Runoff process were compared. Two kinds of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods, including, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS); as well as Heuristic Regression (HR) method, including Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), were used to describe the process. The performance of the methods was determined by using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (R) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) coefficients. Although the performance of AI methods was very close, the lowest error value was obtained by ANFIS method. For the other methods, the highest performance was observed with MARS. It has been concluded that MARS method, which is HR method have higher performance than AI methods.

Keywords:

Rainfall-Runoff Modelling, Artificial Intelligence, Heuristic Regression, Aksu Stream,

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