Lebanon, or the Impossible Revolution

Genellikle ders kitaplarında 'başarısız devlet' olarak gösterilen savaş sonrası Lübnan, son otuz yılda hantal bir siyasi ve ekonomik yörünge çizdi. Bununla birlikte, ne siyasi-idari mekanizmasının algılanan verimsizliği ve yozlaşması ne de seçkinlerinin bir nebze de olsa refah artışına katkısının olmaması, rejim gibi sağlam olduğu düşünülen unsurların halkın tepkisi altında yıkılırken Lübnan sisteminin demirlediği vakıfları tehlikeye atmayı başaramadı. Arap Baharı sırasında esen değişim rüzgarlarından etkilenmeyen Lübnan'ın siyasi yapısının belirleyici unsurları, iç savaşa, yabancı işgaline ve halk protestolarına rağmen temelde değişmeden kaldı.Bu makale, böyle bir siyasi yapının ana hatlarını analiz ederken, sözde 'Ulusal Pakt' içinde yer alan ardışık güç paylaşımı uygulamalarının ve kademeli değişim yaklaşımının, radikal dönüşümlerin ve devrimci ayaklannmaların başarılmasının oldukça zor olduğu bir ortamda nasıl görünüşte zayıf bir sistemi sağlam bir yapıya dönüştürdüğünü tartışmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Lübnan, Anayasa Tarihi, Ulusal Pakt, Yazılı olmayan Anayasa, Arap Baharı

Lebanon, or the Impossible Revolution

Commonly depicted as a textbook example of 'failed state', postwar Lebanon has drawn a cumbersome political and economic trajectory throughout the last three decades. However, neither the perceived inefficiency and corruption of its politico-administrative machinery nor the inability of its élites to engender a modicum of prosperity have managed to jeopardize the foundations whereupon the Lebanese system is anchored, whereas other-apparently more solid-régimes fell down amid public outcry. Unaffected by the winds of change blowing during the Arab Spring, the defining elements of Lebanon's political structure have remained basically unchanged in spite of civil war, foreign occupation, and popular protests. This paper, in analyzing the guidelines of such a political construction, will argue that the consuetudinary power-sharing practices and gradualist approach to change enshrined within the so-called 'National Pact' have turned an apparently weak system into an ironclad construction, where radical transformations and revolutionary upheavals are comparatively hard to achieve.

Keywords:

Lebanon, Constitutional history, National Pact, Unwritten Constitution, Arab Spring,

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