Yatağan fayının aktif tektonik özellikleri ve Holosen paleosismolojik tarihçesi, Güneybatı Anadolu, Türkiye

Batı Anadolu’da neotektonik dönemde KKD-GGB yönlü genişleme rejimi altında, kenarları normal faylarla sınırlandırılmış çok sayıda graben ya da yarı graben gelişmiştir. Yatağan Yarı Grabeni, Büyük Menderes ve Gökova grabenleri arasında yer almakta olup, güneybatı kenarı Yatağan Fayı tarafından sınırlandırılmıştır. Yatağan Fayı, 17 km uzunluğunda, K55-65°B genel doğrultulu, 60-65° kuzeydoğuya eğimli, aktif bir normal faydır. Fayın güncel etkinliğini belgeleyen pek çok morfotektonik veri bulunmaktadır. Fay kayma verilerinin kinematik analiz sonuçlarına göre, Yatağan Fayı K40°D ve G40°B yönlü genişlemeli bir tektonik rejim altında gelişmiştir. Bu genişlemeli tektonik rejim, kuzeydoğuya doğru dalan Afrika okyanusal litosferinin üzerinde gelişen yay gerisi genişleme ile ilişkilendirilmiştir. Normal faylar için öngörülen görgül eşitliklere göre, Yatağan Fayı’nın üretebileceği en büyük deprem büyüklüğü Mw 6,48, en büyük yer değiştirme miktarı 0,74 metre, ortalama yer değiştirme miktarı ise 0,43 metre olarak hesaplanmıştır. Yatağan Fayı boyunca yürütülen paleosismoloji çalışmalarında, son 11000 yıl içerisinde, yüzey kırığı üretmiş 4 deprem tanımlanmış ve tarihlendirilmiştir. Yatağan Fayı’nın 1548 yıl ile 3655 yıl arasında değişmek üzere, ortalama 2600 yıllık bir deprem tekrarlanma aralığına sahip olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Paleosismolojik veriden elde edilen ortalama deprem tekrarlanma aralığı (2600 yıl) ve ortalama yer değiştirme miktarı (0,43 metre) göz önüne alındığında, Yatağan Fayı için yıllık kayma hızı ortalama 1,18 mm/yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır.

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