Karşı-Olgusal Analiz ve Gerek-Şart: Soğuk Savaş’ın Sona Ermesi ve Çernobil Nükleer Faciası

Karşı-olgusal yöntem, nitel araştırmada tekil tarihsel olayların nedenleri hakkında çıkarım yapmayı sağlar. Tarihsel araştırmada gerek-şart hipotezlerine dayalı karşı-olgusal çıkarımlar kuramsal açıklamaları geliştirme, netleştirme, karşılaştırma ve test etmede vaka-içi analizle birlikte kullanılır. ABD ve Sovyetler Birliği arasındaki iki kutupluluğun damgasını vurduğu Soğuk Savaş’ın barışçıl olarak sona ermesini açıklayan kuramlar farklı gerek-şartlar öne sürer. Realist açıklama Soğuk Savaş’ın bitişinin gerek-şartının ekonomik gerileme olduğunu, düşünsel açıklama ise Gorbaçov’un “yeni düşüncesi” olduğunu öne sürer. Bu makale, karşı-olgusal yöntemi ve küme kuramını Soğuk Savaş’ın bitişine dair bu rakip açıklamaları incelemek için kullanmaktadır. Önce, karşı-olgusal yöntemin uygulanmasında gözetilecek standartları ele almaktadır. Soğuk Savaş’ın sona ermesini küme kuramıyla ve karşı-olgusal yaklaşımla okuyarak, realist ve düşünsel açıklamaları karşılaştırmaktadır. Sonra, şu karşı-olgusal çıkarımın analizine odaklanmaktadır: “1986 Çernobil nükleer kazası olmasaydı, Soğuk Savaş sona ermezdi”. Son olarak, bu olayı rakip açıklamalara dahil ederek hipotez testleri geliştirmektedir. Farklı nedensel varsayımlar çerçevesinde gerek-şart açıklamalarının nasıl test edilebileceğini, dolayısıyla Soğuk Savaş’ın bitişine dair hipotezlerin nasıl geliştirilebileceğini veya yeniden düzenlenebileceğini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın amacı en iyi açıklamayı bulmak ya da Çernobil faciasını dahil eden vaka analiziyle yeni bir açıklama geliştirmek değildir. Makale, alternatif nedensel varsayımlar sunmaktadır ve her varsayım için, vaka-içi analizle teyit edilmesi halinde, yeni hipotezin ekonomik gerilemenin ve yeni düşüncenin nedensel statüsünü nasıl etkileyeceğini belirtmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

karşı-olgusal çıkarım, küme kuramı, hipotez testi, Soğuk Savaş, Çernobil Kazası

Counterfactual Analysis and Necessary Conditions: The Cold War’s End and the Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster

In qualitative research, counterfactual method is employed for making causal inferences about individual historical events. Necessary condition counterfactuals are utilized in historical research for developing, clarifying, comparing, and testing theoretical explanations through within-case analysis. Theories on the Cold War’s peaceful end marked by the end of bipolar struggle between the USA and the Soviet Union draw on different necessary conditions. The realist explanation rests on economic decline, while the ideational explanation rests on Gorbachev’s “new thinking”. This article uses set theory and counterfactual method to study these rival explanations on the Cold War’s end. Firstly, this study elaborates on the standards for the conduct of counterfactual inference. To compare explanations based on economic decline and the new thinking, it reads the end of the Cold War through set theory and counterfactual approach. Secondly, this study focuses on the analysis of the following counterfactual inference: “The Cold War would not have ended without the Chernobyl accident”. Finally, it develops hypotheses tests by incorporating the Chernobyl event into rival explanations. It shows how necessary condition hypotheses can be tested within the frame of different causal assumptions, thereby generating, or revising hypotheses on the Cold War’s end. This article neither finds the best explanation nor generates a novel case study explanation involving the Chernobyl disaster. It offers alternative causal assumptions and shows how each new hypothesis would have affected the causal status of economic decline and the new thinking, in case of validation through within-case analysis.

Keywords:

counterfactual inference, set theory, hypothesis testing, Cold War, Chernobyl Accident,

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