MURABAHA İLE MAKROEKONOMİK DİNAMİKLER ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ

Murabaha kavramı maliyet artı kar payı satış olarak ifade edilmektedir. Katılım finans ürünü olarak bilinen murabaha, faizsiz finans sistemi içinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada, Türkiye örneklemi üzerinde murabaha ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkisinin ortaya koyulması amaçlanmıştır. Araştırma modelinde murabaha bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılırken, makroekonomik gösterge kapsamında Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH), istihdam oranı ve enflasyon oranı bağımsız değişkenler olarak sınanmıştır. 2010-2019 yılları arasındaki toplam 40 çeyrek dönem veriler Johansen eşbütünleşme, VECM Granger ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinden faydalanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analizden elde edilen bulgulara göre murabaha ile makroekonomik değişkenler uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak eş bütünleşik olup birlikte aynı yönde hareket etmektedir. Toda-Yamamoto analizi sonuçlarına göre murabaha ile GSYİH ve istihdam oranı arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik tespit edilirken murabaha ile enflasyon oranı arasında tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Sonuçlar, murabaha finansmanı ile makroekonomik dinamikler arasında uzun dönem nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Katılım Finans, Murabaha, Makroekonomik Dinamikler, Johansen Eşbütünleşme, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi, Türkiye

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MURABAHA AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS

The concept of murabaha is expressed as cost plus profit share sales. Murabaha, known as the participation finance product, has an important place in the interest-free financial system. In this context, it is aimed to reveal the relationship between murabaha and macroeconomic variables on the Turkish sample in this study. In the research model, murabaha is used as a dependent variable, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment rate, and inflation rate have been tested as independent variables within the scope of macroeconomic indicator. A total of 40 quarterly data between 2010-2019 have been analyzed using the Johansen cointegration, VECM Granger and Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to the findings obtained from the analysis, murabaha and macroeconomic variables are statistically identical in the long term and move in the same direction together. According to the findings obtained from the Toda-Yamamoto analysis, a bidirectional causality has been found between murabaha and the GDP and employment rate, which is used as a macroeconomic indicator, while a one-way causality relationship has been found between murabaha and the inflation rate. The results indicate the existence of a long-run causality relationship between murabaha financing and various macroeconomic dynamics.

Keywords:

Participation Finance, Murabaha, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Johansen Co-Integration, Toda- Yamamoto Causality Test, Turkey,

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