AVRUPA PARA BİRLİĞİ: ASİMETRİK ŞOK PROBLEMİ ÜZERİNE BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Avrupa Para Birliği (APB) kendine has bir şekilde kurulmuştur: para politikaları merkezileştirilirken mali politikalar İstikrar ve Büyüme Paktı sınırları içerisinde üye devletlerin yönetiminde bırakılmıştır. Komisyon, APB’nin zaman içinde bir optimum para sahası haline geleceğini, bu yüzden de mali politikaların merkezileştirilmesinin gerekmeyeceğini öne sürmüştür. Mali federalizm literatürü ise bir birlikte, üyelerin diğerlerini olumsuz yönden etkilemeden asimetrik şokları asimile edemeyeceğini, bu yüzden istikrar sağlama politikalarının merkezileştirilmesini önermektedir. Bu yüzden para politikasının merkezileştirilmesi mali politikaların da merkezileştirilmesiyle pekiştirilmelidir. Bu çalışma APB’nin zaman içinde daha simetrik bir yapıya kavuşup kavuşmadığını araştırmaktadır. Önerilen bir merkezi sigorta mekanizmasıyla, zaman içinde değişen modelin istikrar sağlama yetisi ve APB’nin asimetrik şoklarla baş edebilme becerisi bağdaştırılmış ve APB’nin zaman içinde daha simetrik bir yapı haline geldiği görülmüştür

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Avrupa Para Birliği, Optimum Para Sahası, Asimetrik Şoklar, Mali Federalizm

EMU: AN EVALUATION OF THE ASYMMETRIC SHOCK PROBLEM

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has a unique set up: while the monetary policy is centralised at the Union-level, the fiscal policies are left to the member states within the limitations of the Stability and Growth Pact. The Commission argues that within time EMU would constitute an optimum currency area, and further centralisation of fiscal policies, thus, is not needed. Fiscal federalism literature, on the other hand argues that stabilisation functions should be centralised, since no individual would be able to deal with an asymmetric shock without harming another member. Therefore the fiscal policy centralisation should accompany the monetary centralisation. This study tries to assess whether the EMU has become more symmetric over time. By proposing a centralised insurance against asymmetric shock, and linking the trend of the stabilisation provided by the insurance scheme to the ability of EMU to absorb asymmetric shocks, the results of the study suggests that EMU has become more symmetric over time

Keywords:

EMU, OCA, Asymmetric Shock Fiscal Federalism, Jel Codes: C23, E63, H77,

PDF

___

Babetskii, I. (2004). ‘EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of some OCA Criteria: Evidence from the CEECs’. Working Paper Series, 2/2004. Czech National Bank.
Bajo-Rubio, O., and Díaz-Roldán, C. (2000). ‘Insurance Mechanisms Against Asymmetric Shocks In A Monetary Union: A Proposal With An Application To EMU’. Working Papers, 00-08, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
Bayoumi, T., and Masson, P.R. (1995). Fiscal Flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for Monetary Union in Europe. European Economic Review, 39, 253-74.
Bayoumi, T., and Masson, P.R. (1998). Liability-Creating Versus Non-Liability-Creating Fiscal Stabilisation Policies: Ricardian Equivalence, Fiscal Stabilisation, and EMU, The Economic Journal, 108(449), 1026-1045.
BBC (2004). Greece Admits Fudging Euro Entry. Retrieved: May 22, 2011, from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4012869.stm
Berger, H., and Nitsch, V. (2008). Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(8), 1244-1260.
Berger, H., and Nitsch, V. (2010). ‘Wearing Corset, Losing Shape: The Euro’s Effect on Trade Imbalances’. Working Paper, 10/226, IMF.
Bini Smaghi L. (2007). ‘With or without prejudice to price stability?’ Speech at the Barclays Capital Annual Conference, London, May 24.
Botero, J. et al. (2004). The Regulation of Labor. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119, 1339–1380.
Braithwaite, T., et al. (2008). Iceland and UK Clash on Crisis. Retrieved: Feb 9, 2009, from: http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id= fto100920081802335371
Broz, T. (2008). ‘The Introduction of the Euro in Central and Eastern European Countries - Is it Economically Justifiable?’ Working Papers, 0801, Zagreb: The Institute of Economics.
Buti, M., and van den Noord, P. (2004). Fiscal Policy in EMU: Rules, Discretion and Political Incentives. European Economy - Economic Papers, 206.
Buti, M., and van den Noord, P. (2009). The Euro: The Past Successes and New Challenges. National Institute Economic Review, 208, 68-85.
Catenaro, M. (2000). ‘Macroeconomic Policy Interactions in the EMU: A Case For Fiscal Policy Co-Ordination’. Department Of Economics Discussion Papers, 0003, Department Of Economics, University Of Surrey.
Christodoulakis, N. (2009). ‘Ten Years Of EMU: Convergence, Divergence And New Policy Priorities’. GreeSe Paper, No 22, Hellenic Observatory Papers On Greece And Southeast Europe. Retrieved: May 27, 2010, from: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/23192/1/GreeSE_No_22.pdf
Clar, M., Dreger,C. and Ramos, R. (2007). ‘Wage Flexibility and Labour Market Institutions: A Meta Analysis’. IZA Discussion Papers, No 2581, IZA. Retrieved: May 17, 2010, from: http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/bitstream/10419/33997/1/527494925.pdf
Crossley, T., and Low, H. (2004). ‘When Might Unemployment Insurance Matter? Credit Constraints And The Cost Of Saving’. Department of Economics Working Paper Series, 2004-04, Mcmaster University.
Cuaresma, C.J., and Amador, F.O. (2007). ‘Business Cycle Convergence In Europe: A First Look At The Second Moment’. Research Seminar, Narodowy Bank Polski.
De Grauwe, P. (2005). Economics of Monetary Union. 6th Ed. New York: Oxford University Press.
De Grauwe, P. (2006). What Have We Learnt about Monetary Integration Since the Maastricht Treaty? Journal of Common Market Studies, 44(4), 711-730.
De Grauwe, P., and Moesen, W. (2009). ‘Gains for All: A Proposal for a Common Euro Bond’. Intereconomics, May/June, 132-135.
De Grauwe, P., and Senegas, M. (2003). ‘Monetary Policy in EMU When the Transmission Is Assymmetric and Uncertain’. CESifo Working Paper Series, No. 891.
Delors Report (1989). ‘Report on Economic and Monetary Union in the European Community’. Committee for the Study of Economic and Monetary Union. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the EC.
Delpla, J. and von Weizsäcker, J. (2010). ‘The Blue Bond proposal’. Bruegel Policy Brief, 2010/03, Brussels.
Demyanyk, Y., and Volosovych, V. (2005). ‘Asymmetry Of Output Shocks In The European Union: The Difference Between Acceding And Current Members’. CEPR Discussion Papers, No 4847, CEPR.
Demyanyk, Y., Ostergaard,C., and Sorensen, B.E., (2008). ‘Risk Sharing and Portfolio Allocation in EMU’. European Economy - Economic Papers, No. 334.
Dullien S., and Schwarzer D. (2005). ‘The Eurozone Under Serious Pressure. Regional Economic Cycles in the Monetary Union Need to be Stabilised’. Stiftung Weissenschaft and Politik, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, SWP Comments, No. 22, June.
Edwards, S. (2008). ‘Sequencing of Reforms, Financial Globalisation, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability’. Working Paper, 14384, NBER Working Paper Series.
European Commission (1990). ‘One Market, One Money. European Economy: An Evaluation of the Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union’. European Economy, No. 44.
European Commission (2006). Public Finances in EMU – 2006. European Economy, 3.
European Commission (2009a). Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses. European Economy, 7.
European Commission (2009b). Public Finances in EMU 2009. European Economy, 5.
Eurostat (2004). ‘Report by Eurostat on the Revision of the Greek Government Deficit and Debt Figures’. Luxembourg: Eurostat.
Evers, M.P. (2006). Federal Fiscal Transfers in Monetary Unions: A NOEM Approach. International Tax and Public Finance, 13(4), 463-488.
Faiola, A. (2010). Greece's Economic Crisis Could Signal Trouble for Its Neighbors. Retrieved: May 22, 2011, from: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/story/2010/02/09/ST2010020904032.html?hpid=topnews
Fatas, A. (1998). Does EMU Need A Fiscal Federation? Economic Policy, 13(26), EMU, 165-203.
Ferreiro, J., Garcia-del-Valle, M.T., and Gomez, C. (2009). Is the Composition of Public Expenditures Converging in EMU Countries?. Journal of Post Keynesian Studies, 31(3),459-484.
Frankel, J.A, and Rose, A.K. (1997). Is EMU More Justifiable Ex Post Than Ex Ante? European Economic Review, 41, 753-760.
Gros, D., and Mayer, T. (2010). How to deal with sovereign default in Europe: Create the European Monetary Fund now! CEPS Policy Brief, CEPS.
Hall, A. (2008). Pressure Mounts on Brown to Protect All Bank Savings after Germany Promises Iron-cast Guarantee. Retrieved: Feb 9, 2009, from: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1069132/Pressure-mounts-Brown-protect-ALLbank-savings-Germany-promises-cast-iron-guarantee.html
Hammond, G.W. and Von Hagen, J. (1998). Regional Insurance Against Asymmetric Shocks: An Empirical Study for the European Community, The Manchester School, 66 (3), 331-353.
HM Treasury (2003). EMU And Labour Market Flexibility. London: HM Treasury. Retrieved: May 7, 2009, from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/europe/03/euro/pdf/8.pdf.
Imre, Ö. (2010). The Effect of Fiscal Federalism to Absorb Asymmetric Shocks in Economic and Monetary Union. Master Thesis. Istanbul: Marmara University.
Italianer, A., and Vanheukelen, M. (1993). ‘Proposals for Community Stabilization Mechanisms: Some Historical Applications’. The Economics of Community Public Finance, European Economy, Reports And Studies No 5.
Jones, E. (2009). ‘European Fiscal Policy Co-ordination and the Persistent Myth of Stabilization’. Leia S. Talani (ed.), The Future of the EMU. Great Britain: Palgrave Macmillan.
Kenen, P. (1969). ‘The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View’. Robert E. Mundell and Alexander K. Swoboda (eds.), Monetary Problems in the International Economy. Chicago: University Of Chicago Press.
Knotek II., E.S., (2007). How Useful is Okun's Law? Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 3, 5-33.
Krugman, P. (1993). ‘Lessons Of Massachusetts For EMU’. Francisco Torres and Francesco Giavazzi (eds.), Adjustment And Growth In The European Monetary Union. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lane, P. R. (2008). EMU and Financial Integration. IIIS Discussion Papers, No. 272, IIIS.
Lian, X. (2008). EU split on how to tackle financial crisis. Retrieved: Feb 12, 2009, from: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2008 10/07/ content_ 7082634.htm
Lockwood, B. (2002). Distributive Politics and the Costs of Centralization. Review of Economic Studies, 69(2), 313-37.
McKinnon, R. (1963). Optimum Currency Area, The American Economic Review 53(4), 717- 725.
McNamara, K.R. (2005). ‘Economic and Monetary Union: Innovation and Challenges for the Euro’. Helen Wallace, William Wallace, and Mark A. Pollack (eds.), Policy Making in the European Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Mongelli, F. P. (2002). ‘“New” Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?’ Working Paper Series, No. 138, ECB.
Mundell, R.A. (1961). A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas. The American Economic Review, 51(4), 657-665.
Musgrave, R.A. (2008). Public Finance and Three Branch Model. Journal of Economics and Finance, 32, 334-339.
Oates, W.E. (1968). The Theory of Public Finance in a Federal System. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 1(1), 37-54.
Oates, W.E. (1972). Fiscal Federalism. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich
Oates, W.E. (1999). An Essay On Fiscal Federalism. Journal Of Economic Literature, 37(3), 1120-1149.
Oates, W.E. (2006). ‘On the Theory and Practice of Fiscal Decentralisation’. IFIR Working Paper, No 2006-05, IFIR.
OECD (2009). Investment News. Issue 10, June.
Rosen, H. (2005). Public Finance. 7th ed. McGraw-Hill
Sala-I-Martin, X., and Sachs, J. (1991). ‘Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe from the United States’, NBER Working Paper Series, No 3855, NBER.
Schiavo, S. (2008). ‘Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas’. Working Papers, No.25, Università di Verona, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche.
Siedschlag, I. (2008). ‘Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area’. SUERF Studies, No:2008/3, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum.
Von Hagen, J. (1992). ‘Fiscal Arrangements in a Monetary Union - Some Evidence from the US’. Donald E. Fair and Christian de Boissieux (eds.), Fiscal Policy, Taxes, and the Financial System in an Increasingly Integrated Europe, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Von Hagen, J. (1998). ‘Fiscal Policy and Intra-national Risk-Sharing’. ZEI Discussion Papers, No B 98-13, ZEI.
Weingast, B.R. (1995). The Economic Role Of Political Institutions: Market-Preserving Federalism And Economic Development. Journal of Law Economics and Organization, 11, 1-31.
Weingast, B.R. (2007). Second Generation Fiscal Federalism: Implications For Decentralized Democratic Governance And Economic Development. In: Conference On New Perspectives On Fiscal Federalism: Intergovernmental Relations, Competition And Accountability.
Werner Report (1970). ‘Report to the Council and the Commission on the Realization by Stages of Economic and Monetary Union in the Community’. Council and Commission of the EC, Bulletin of the EC, Supplement 11.
Wildasin, D.E. (2000). Factor Mobility and Fiscal Policy In The EU: Policy Issues And Analytical Approaches, Economic Policy, 15(31), 339-378.