Ticaret Savaşları: ABD, Meksika, Çin Örnekleri

Bu çalışma, giderek daha sık gündeme gelen ticaret savaşlarını ve olası makroekonomik etkilerini ABD, Çin ve Meksika örnekleri üzerinden varsayımsal bir yaklaşımla analiz etmektedir. Bu analizde kullanılan üç ana senaryo ve misilleme davranışı, ABD'nin tek taraflı olarak ticaret savaşı başlatması, taraflar arasında iki taraflı bir ticaret savaşı ve Nash dengesine uygun bir optimal dengedir. Çalışmanın ana sonuçları, herhangi bir refah kazancına değil, aksine büyük refah kayıplarına yol açacağıdır. Ayrıca, bir ticaret savaşında daha büyük ekonomiye sahip olan tarafın nispeten kazançlı çıkabileceği ve Nash dengesinin sağladığı optimum dengenin toplam refah kaybını en aza indiren senaryo olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ticaret Savaşları, Optimal Denge, Nash, Korumacılık

Trade Wars: The Cases of USA, Mexico, China

This paper analyzes trade wars and their potential macroeconomic effects with a hypothetical approach through the cases of the US, China and Mexico. The three main scenarios and retaliatory behaviors used in this analysis are the unilateral launch of a trade war by the US, a bilateral trade war between the parties, and an optimal equilibrium in line with the Nash equilibrium. The main conclusions of the study are that it would not lead to any welfare gains, but rather to large welfare losses. Also, the optimum equilibrium provided by Nash equilibrium is the scenario that minimizes the total welfare loss.

Keywords:

Trade wars, Optimal tariffs, Nash, Protectionism,

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