Türkiye’de Mali Af Programlarının Vergi Sistemi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Ekonomik aktörlerce yerine getirilmeyen yükümlülüklerin bir kısmı ya da tamamı hukuki düzenlemeler aracılığıyla kaldırılabilir. Literatürde mali af olarak anılan bu düzenlemeler, ekonomik aktörlerin karşılaşılacağı yaptırımların kaldırılmasını veya hafifletilmesini ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, mali af programlarının belirli bir dönemde tahakkuk eden ve tahsil edilen kamu gelirleri üzerinde oluşturduğu etkileri ampirik olarak belirlemektir. Araştırma sürecinde Türkiye’deki 81 il örnekleminde 2004 ile 2020 yılları arasındaki dönem esas alınmıştır. Oluşturulan veri seti aracılığıyla farklı kapsamlarla uygulamaya konulan altı mali affın vergi sistemi üzerindeki etkileri sınanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre belirli bir dönemdeki mali af programı tahsil ve tahakkuk tutarlarını kısa dönemde pozitif etkilemektedir. Uzun dönemde ise vergi aflarının özellikle tahsil tutarları üzerinde negatif yönlü etkisi vardır. Bunun yanında af programları, vergi uyumunun makro ekonomik ölçekteki göstergelerinden biri olan tahsil-tahakkuk oranını da hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde etkilemektedir. Yine bulgulara göre, tekrar eden vergi afları ile vergi sistemi üzerindeki kısa dönemli genişletici etkiler azalmakta, buna karşılık uzun dönemli negatif etkiler ise artmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan yöntem ve elde edilen sonuçlar, mali afların mikro ve makro ölçekteki olumlu ve olumsuz etkilerinin betimlenebilmesine olanak vermektedir. Bu yönüyle çalışma, kısa ve uzun vadede izlenecek politikalar için görgül bir öneri zemini sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Vergi affı, mali af programları, mali yapılandırma, vergi sistemi, panel veri analizi

The Effects of Fiscal Amnesty Programs on the Tax System in Türkiye

Obligations that are not fulfilled by economic actors can be removed through legal regulations. This is called fiscal amnesty in the literature and involves the removal or softening of the sanctions economic actors will face. This study aims to empirically investigate the impact of fiscal amnesty programs on collected and acquired public revenues. Data for the sample of Türkiye’s 81 provinces used in the study were drawn from the period of 2004-2020. The study uses the developed data set to evaluate the effects of six fiscal amnesties, each of which had a different scope, on the tax system. The results show the fiscal amnesty program to have had positive short-term effects on accrual and collection amounts. However, tax amnesties were especially seen to negatively affect the amounts collected over the long run. Additionally, amnesty programs have both short- and long-term effects on the accrual rate, one of the macroeconomic measures of tax compliance. The results also show the short-term beneficial effects on the tax system to decline and the long-term adverse consequences to rise with repeated tax amnesties. One can describe the benefits and drawbacks of financial amnesties at both the micro and macro dimensions due to the study’s methodology and findings, and in this regard, the study offers an empirical basis for both short-term and long-term policy recommendations.

Keywords:

Vergi Affı, Mali Af Programları, Mali Yapılandırma, Vergi Sistemi, Panel Veri Analizi.,

PDF

___

Abdurrahmani, E., & Doğan, Z. (2019). Required practices for successful tax amnesty. Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 2(3), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.30560/jems.v2n3p1 google scholar
Adhikari, D. R., Everson, W., & Gray, L. (2009). Effect of unemployment insurance tax on wages and reallocation of labour. Applied Economics Letters, 16(2), 147-150. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850601018247 google scholar
Akbelen, Z., & Aydın, Z. B. (2019). Vergi afları ve vergilemede adalet algısının vergi uyumuna etkisi: Bursa ili örneği. International Journal of Social Inquiry, 12(2), 409-437. https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.658995 google scholar
Alm, J., & Beck, W. (1990). Tax amnesties and tax revenues. Public Finance Quarterly, 18(4), 433-453. https://doi.org/10.1177/109114219001800404 google scholar
Alm, J., & Beck, W. (1991). Wiping the slate clean: Individual response to state tax amnesties. Southern Economic Journal, 1043-1053. https://doi.org/10.2307/1060332 google scholar
Alm, J., & Beck, W. (1993). Tax amnesties and compliance in the long run: A time series analysis. National Tax Journal, 46(1), 53-60. https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41788996 google scholar
Alm, J., Martinez-Vazquez, J., & Wallace, S. (2009). Do tax amnesties work? The revenue effects of tax amnesties during the transition in the Russian federation. Economic Analysis & Policy, 39(2), 235-253. google scholar
Alm, J., McKee, M., & Beck, W. (1990). Amazing grace: Tax amnesties and compliance. National Tax journal, 43(1).23-37. https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41788822 google scholar
Andrejovska, A., & Pulikova, V. (2018). Tax revenues in the context of economic determinants. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 14(1), 133-141. google scholar
Andreoni, J. (1991). The desirability of a permanent tax amnesty. Journal of Public Economics, 45(2), 143-159.https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(91)90037-3 google scholar
Arulampalam, W. (2001). Is unemployment really scarring? Effects of unemployment experiences on wages. The Economic Journal, 111(475), 585-606. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00664 google scholar
Atçeken, F. D., Altundemir, M. E. & Turan, A. H. (2018). Vergi aflarının vergi uyumuna etkisi: Kocaeli örneği. Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(1), 59-75. google scholar
Bhargava, A., Franzini, L., & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and the fixed effects model. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), 533-549. google scholar
Bayer, R. C., Oberhofer, H., & Winner, H. (2015). The occurrence of tax amnesties: Theory and evidence. Journal of Public Economics, 125, 70-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.02.006 google scholar
Bozdoğan, D., & Şimşek, T. (2018). An empirical analysis of the impact of tax amnesties on tax incomes between 1980-2014 in Turkey. International Journal of Eurasia Social Sciences, 3(32), 1036-1046. google scholar
Castro, G. Á., & Camarillo, D. B. R. (2014). Determinants of tax revenue in OECD countries over the period 2001-2011. Contaduría y administración, 59(3), 35-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0186-1042(14)71265-3 google scholar
Çağan, N. (1972), Türk hukukunda vergi cezalarının affı. Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, 29(1), 111122. google scholar
Çelikay, F. (2017), Milli gelirin vergi yükü üzerindeki etkileri: ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme (1924-2014). Sosyoekonomi, 25(2), 169-188. google scholar
Çelikay, F. (2020), Dimensions of tax burden: a review on OECD countries. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25(49), 27-43. google scholar
Çetin, G. (2007). Vergi aflarının vergi mükelleflerinin tutum ve davranışları üzerindeki etkisi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 14(2), 171-187. google scholar
Das-Gupta, A., & Mookherjee, D. (1995). Tax amnesties in India: an empirical evaluation. Boston University: Institute for Economic Development Discussion Paper Series. google scholar
Delechat, C. C., & Medina, L. (2020). Back to basics: What is the informal economy? Finance & Development, 57(004), 54-55. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513544625.022 google scholar
Desai, M. A. (2003). The divergence between book income and tax income. Tax Policy and the Economy, 17, 169206. https://doi.org/10.1086/tpe.17.20140508 google scholar
Diamastuti, E., & Hardanti, K. N. (2019). The Investigation of taxpayer compliance in tax amnesty. AKRUAL: Jurnal Akuntansi, 10(2), 85-104. https://doi.org/10.26740/jaj.v10n2.p85-104 google scholar
Dubin, J. A., Graetz, M. J., & Wilde, L. L. (1992). State income tax amnesties: Causes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(3), 1057-1070. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118374 google scholar
Edizdoğan, N., & Gümüş, E. (2013). Vergi afları ve Türkiye’de vergi aflarının değerlendirilmesi. Maliye Dergisi, 164, 99-119. google scholar
Ekinci, F., Acar, Y. & Ekeryılmaz, Ş. (2019). Türkiye’de vergi aflarının çıkarılmasının altında yatan gerekçelerin tespiti: Probit model ile analiz. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 8(2), 177-188. google scholar
Elgin, C., Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F., & Yu, S. (2022). Understanding the informal economy: Concepts and trends. F. Ohnsorge, S. Yu (Eds.), The long shadow of informality: Challenges and policies, World Bank (pp. 33-92).https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1753-3_ch2 google scholar
Fisher, R. C., Goddeeris, J. H., & Young, J. C. (1989). Participation in tax amnesties: The individual income tax. National Tax Journal, 42(1), 15-27. https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41788770 google scholar
Fredström, A., Peltonen, J., & Wincent, J. (2021). A country-level institutional perspective on entrepreneurship productivity: The effects of informal economy and regulation. Journal of Business Venturing, 36(5), 106002. https://doi.org/10.1016/jjbusvent.2020.106002 google scholar
Gelir İdaresi Başkanlığı (2023). Faal mükellef sayıları (2002-2022). Erişim adresi: https://www.gib.gov.tr/yardim-ve-kaynaklar/istatistikler (05.02.2023) google scholar
Gerger, G. C. (2012). Tax amnesties and tax compliance in Turkey. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Thought, 2(3), 107-113. google scholar
Guo, F., Huang, Y., Wang, J., & Wang, X. (2022). The informal economy at times of COVID-19 pandemic. China Economic Review, 71, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.10167j.chieco.2021.101722 google scholar
Güler, H. (2020). Türkiye’de vergi aflarının vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisinin olay analiziyle ölçülmesi. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 19(1), 256-273. google scholar
Hajawiyah, A., Suryarini, T., & Tarmudji, T. (2021). Analysis of a tax amnesty’s effectiveness in Indonesia. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 44, 100415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intaccaudtax.2021.100415 google scholar
Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı (2022). Tahsilat tahakkuk oranlarına ilişkin basın açıklaması - 10.08.2022. Erişim adresi: https://www.hmb.gov.tr/haberler/tahsilat-tahakkuk-oranlarina-iliskin-basin-aciklamasi-10-08-2022 (05.02.2023) google scholar
İŞKUR (2023). Kayıtlı işsizlerin illere ve meslek gruplarına göre dağılımı (2004-2021). https://www.iskur.gov.tr/ kurumsal-bilgi/istatistikler/ (05.02.2023) google scholar
Kargı, V. (2011). Türkiye’de vergi aflarının vergi gelirlerine etkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi. 7(13), 101-115. google scholar
Kaya, A (2014). Vergi aflarının vergi gelirlerine etkisi: Türkiye üzerine ampirik bir analiz. Maliye Dergisi, 167, 184-199. google scholar
Kellner, M. (2004). Tax amnesty 2004/2005-An appropriate revenue tool? German Law Journal, 5(4), 339-346. https://doi.org/10.1017/S2071832200012499 google scholar
Khuong, N. V., Shabbir, M. S., Sial, M. S., & Khanh, T. H. T. (2021). Does informal economy impede economic growth? Evidence from an emerging economy. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 11(2), 103-122. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2020.1711501 google scholar
Le Borgne, E. (2005). Economic and political determinants of tax amnesties in the US States. In Proceedings. Annual Conference on Taxation and Minutes of the Annual Meeting of the National Tax Association, 98, 443449. google scholar
Leonard, H. B., & Zeckhauser, R. J. (1987). Amnesty, enforcement, and tax policy. Tax Policy and the Economy, 1, 55-85. google scholar
Lerman, A. H. (1986). Tax amnesty: The federal perspective. National Tax Journal, 39(3), 325-332. https://doi. org/10.1086/NTJ41792194 google scholar
Lopez-Laborda, J., & Rodrigo, F. (2003). Tax amnesties and income tax compliance: The case of Spain. Fiscal Studies, 24(1), 73-96. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2003.tb00077.x google scholar
Luitel, H. S. (2007). Short-run and long-run effects of tax amnesties on tax revenues: Evidences from US states. In Proceedings. Annual Conference on Taxation and Minutes of the Annual Meeting of the National Tax Association, 100, 402-413. google scholar
Luitel, H. S., & Sobel, R. S. (2007). The revenue impact of repeated tax amnesties. Public Budgeting & Finance, 27(3), 19-38. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2007.00881.x google scholar
Luitel, H. S., & Tosun, M. S. (2014). A reexamination of state fiscal health and amnesty enactment. International Tax and Public Finance, 21(5), 874-893. google scholar
Mahestyanti, P., Juanda, B., & Anggraeni, L. (2018). The determinants of tax compliance in tax amnesty programs: experimental approach. Jurnal Etikonomi, 17(1), 93-110. google scholar
Malik, A. S., & Schwab, R. M. (1991). The economics of tax amnesties. Journal of Public Economics, 46(1), 29-49.https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(91)90063-8 google scholar
Mikesell, J. L. (1986). Amnesties for state tax evaders: The nature of and response to recent programs. National Tax Journal, 39(4), 507-525. https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41788630 google scholar
Minh Ha, N., Tan Minh, P., & Binh, Q. M. Q. (2022). The determinants of tax revenue: A study of Southeast Asia. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2026660. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2026660 google scholar
Moran, G. P. (1992). Tax amnesty: An old debate as viewed from current public choices. Florida Tax Review, 1(5).307. https://doi.org/10.5744/ftr.1993.1052 google scholar
Muhasebat Genel Müdürlüğü (2023). Genel bütçe gelirlerinin iller itibariyle tahakkuk ve tahsilatı (2004-2022). Erişim adresi: https://muhasebat.hmb.gov.tr/genel-butce-gelirlerinin-iller-itibariyle-tahakkuk-ve-tahsilati-2004-2019 (05.02.2023) google scholar
Muhasebat Genel Müdürlüğü (2019). Kamu idareleri için mali analiz rehberi. Erişim adresi: https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/ uploads/sites/3/2019/02/Mali-Analiz-Rehberi.pdf (05.02.2023) google scholar
Mujahid, A., & Siddiqui, D. A. (2019). The effect of tax amnesties programs on tax collection and economic performance: A global macro economic analysis. International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 4(2), 108-128. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.136.2019.42.108.128 google scholar
Murphy, K. J. (2007). The impact of unemployment insurance taxes on wages. Labour Economics, 14(3), 457-484.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2006.02.002 google scholar
Randolph, W. C. (1995). Dynamic income, progressive taxes, and the timing of charitable contributions. Journal of Political Economy, 103(4), 709-738. https://doi.org/10.1086/262000 google scholar
Parle, W. M., & Hirlinger, M. W. (1986). Evaluating the use of tax amnesty by state governments. Public Administration Review, 246-255. https://doi.org/10.2307/3110440 google scholar
Pfähler, W. (1990). Redistributive effect of income taxation: decomposing tax base and tax rates effects. Bulletin of Economic Research, 42(2), 121-129. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8586.1990.tb00295.x google scholar
Piancastelli, M., & Thirlwall, A. P. (2021). The determinants of tax revenue and tax effort in developed and developing countries: Theory and new evidence 1996-2015. Nova Economia, 30, 871-892. https://doi. org/10.1590/0103-6351/5788 google scholar
Pissarides, C. A. (1998). The impact of employment tax cuts on unemployment and wages; the role of unemployment benefits and tax structure. European Economic Review, 42(1), 155-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00090-1 google scholar
Pommerehne, W. W., & Zweifel, P. (1991). Success of a tax amnesty: At the polls, for the fisc? Public Choice, 72(2), 131-165. google scholar
Sandalcı, U., Saygın, Ö. & Sandalcı, İ. (2015). Kayıt içi ekonomide devletin gelir kayıpları: Türkiye örneği. google scholar
International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, 1(1), 131-142. google scholar
Saraçoğlu, O. F. & Çaşkurlu, E. (2011). Tax amnesty with effects and effecting aspects: tax compliance, tax audits and enforcements around; the Turkish case. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(7), 95-103. google scholar
Savaşan, F. (2006). Vergi afları: Teori ve Türkiye uygulamaları (“Vergi Barışı” uygulama sonuçları). Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1), 41-65. google scholar
Sayidah, N., & Assagaf, A. (2019). Tax amnesty from the perspective of tax official. Cogent Business & Management, 6(1). 1659909. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2019.1659909 google scholar
Saygın, Ö. (2019). Vergi uyumu: Vergi idaresinin vergi uyumuna etkisi. Eskişehir: Boyut Kitabevi. google scholar Saygın, Ö., Sandalcı, U. ve Sandalcı, İ. (2019). Vergi sistemi karmaşıklığının vergi uyumu üzerindeki etkisinin belirlenmesine yönelik bir araştırma. Vergi Sorunları Dergisi, 42(366), 144-162. google scholar
Stella, P. (1991). An economic analysis of tax amnesties. Journal of Public Economics, 46(3), 383-400. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(91)90013-R google scholar
Taşkın, Y. (2012). Vergi Psikolojisi ve Vergiye Karşi Mükellef Tepkileri. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları, (54), 67-90. google scholar
Tekin, A., & Tuncer, G. (2013). Vergi afları sonrasında vergi uyum süreci. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 2(2), 1-26. google scholar
Torgler, B., Schaltegger, C. A., & Schaffner, M. (2003). Is forgiveness divine? A cross-culture comparison of tax amnesties. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 139(3), 375-396. google scholar
Torgler, B., & Schaltegger, C. A. (2005). Tax amnesties and political participation. Public Finance Review, 33(3),403-431. https://doi.org/10.1177/1091142105275438 google scholar
TÜİK (2023). İl bazında gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla (2004-2021). Erişim adresi: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/ Index?p=Il-Bazinda-Gayrisafi-Yurt-Ici-Hasila-2021-45619 (05.02.2023) google scholar
TÜİK (2023). Yıllara göre il nüfusları (2000-2021). Erişim adresi: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Nufus-ve-Demografi-109 (05.02.2023) google scholar
Yılmaz, S. (2017). Anayasal vergilendirme ilkeleri çerçevesinde vergi affı. Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, 66(1), 263-300. google scholar
Yuesti, A. (2018). Taxpayer compliance analysis of tax amnesty application as effort improvement of increasing on countryincomeand development through tax sector. International Journal of Business and Management Invention, 7(5), 29-36. google scholar
Yücedoğru, R., & Sarısoy, İ. (2020). Are tax amnesties good for us all? Understanding influence of tax amnesties on benefiters and non-benefiters. CESifo Economic Studies, 66(3), 285-300. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ ifz020 google scholar
5811 sayılı Bazı Varlıkların Milli Ekonomiye Kazandırılması Hakkında Kanun, google scholar
6111 sayılı Bazı Alacakların Yeniden Yapılandırılması Hakkında Kanun, google scholar
6552 sayılı Bazı Alacakların Yeniden Yapılandırılmasına Dair Kanun, google scholar
6736 sayılı Bazı Alacakların Yapılandırılmasına İlişkin Kanun, google scholar
7020 sayılı Bazı Alacakların Yeniden Yapılandırılmasına Dair Kanun, google scholar
7143 sayılı Bazı Alacakların Yeniden Yapılandırılması Hakkında Kanun. google scholar