SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR BORÇ DÜZEYİ: TEORİ VE TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Bu çalışmada, borçların sürdürülebilirliği dönemler arası bütçe kısıtı dikkate alınarak araştırılmıştır. Yapılan eşbütünleşme analizi ile kamu harcamaları ile vergi gelirleri arasında uzun dönemde bir ilişki bulunmuş, ancak kamu harcamalarının vergi gelirlerinden daha hızlı artması nedeniyle maliye politikalarında değişiklik yapılması gerektiği sonucuna varılmıştır.

PDF

___

Abel, A., G. Mankiw, L.Summers, R. Zeckhauser (1989): “Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence”, Review of Economic Studies 56, 1-20.
Ahmet, S. ve J. Rogers (1995): “Government Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits. Are Present Value Constraints Satisfied in Long-term Data?”, Journal of Monetary Economics 36, 351-374.
Akçay, C, Alper, E ve Özmucur, S. (2001): “Budget Deficits, Inflatıon and Debt Sustainability: Evidence From Turkey 1970-2000”, Boğaziçi Üniversitesi, WP, No. 01-12.
Arın, T. (2004): “Sürdürülebilir Borçluluk: Düşük Gelirli Ülkeler, Orta Gelirli Ülkeler ve Türkiye,” Gülten Kazgan’a Armağan, İstanbul Bilgi Ü. Yay.
İskonto edilmiş borç stokunun durağanlığının araştırıldığı Akçay vd.(2002) çalışmalarında da aynı sonuca ulaşılmıştır.
Ball, L., ve D. Elmendorf, G. Mankiw (1995): “The Deficit Gamble”, NBER Working Paper no. 5015.
Barro, R., (1974): “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy 82, 1095-1117
Barro, R., (1979): “On the Determination of Public Debt”, Journal of Political Economy 87, 5, 940-971.
Blanchard, O.,j.Chouraqui, P.Hagemann ve N.Sartor (1990): “The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question”, OECD Economic Studies, 15, s.7-36.
Bohn, H., (1991): “On Testing Sustainability of Government Deficits in a Stochastic Environment”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27, 257-271.
Bohn, H., (1991): “The Sustainability of Budget Deficits with Lump-sum and with Income-based Taxation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23, No.3, s. 580-604.
Bohn, H., (1998): “The Behavior of US Public Debt and Deficits”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133, 3, 949-63.
Chortareas,G. ve G. Kapetanios, M.Uçtum (2003): “A Nonlineer Approach to Public Finance Sustainability in Latin America”, Queen Mary University of London Working Paper No. 486, 1-19.
Cuddington, J., (1996): “Analysing the Sustainabity of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries”,Georgetown University WP, No6
Engle, R. ve W. J. Granger (1987): “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing” Econometrica 55, 251-276.
Engle, R. ve B. Yoo (1991): Cointegrated Economic Time Series; An Overview with New Results, R.Engle ve C. Granger (edt) Long-run Economic Relationships içinde,Oxford University Press, 237-66.
Feve, P.,ve P. Henin (2000): “Assessing Effective Sustainability of Fiscal Policy Within the G-7”, Oxford Bulletting of Economics and Statistics, 62, 2, s. 175-195.
Hakkio, C. ve M. Rush (1991): “Is the Budget Deficit too Large?”, Economic Inquiry, 59, 429- 445.
Hamilton, J. ve M. Flavin (1986): “On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Emprical Testing”, American Economic Review 76, 808-819.
Harris, R. (1995): Using Cointegration Analysis in Econometric Modelling, Prentice Hall.
Keyder, N. (2003): “A Note on the Debt Sustainability Issue in Turkey”, ODTÜ, ERC. WP No. 03/02.
McCallum, B., (1984): “Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis”, Journal of Political Economy 92, 123-35.
O’Connell,S. ve S.Zeldes (1988): “Rational Ponzi Games”, International Economic Review 29,431-50.
Tanner, E. ve P.Liu (1994): “Is the Budget Deficit too Large? Some Further Evidence.”, Economic Inquiry 32,511-518.
Trehan, B. ve C. Walsh (1991): “Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 23, 206-223.
Uçtum, M. Ve M. Wickens (2000): “Debt and Deficit Ceilings and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy” , Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Voyvoda, E (2003): Alternatives in Debt Management: Investigation of Turkish Debt in an Overlapping Generations General Equilibrium Framework, Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi.
Voyvoda, E ve E. Yeldan (2003): “Managing Turkish Debt: An OLG Investigation of the IMF’s Fiscal Programming Model for Turkey”, http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/~yeldane/
Wilcox, D., (1989): “The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present Value Borrowing Constraints”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 21, 291-306.
Zee, H., (1988): “The Sustainability and Optimality of Government Debt”, IMF Staff Papers 35, 4, 659-685.