SEÇİM SÜRECİ VE MALİYE POLİTİKASI DALGALANMALARI: BİR ALAN TARAMASI
Tüm sanayileşmiş ülkeler ekonomik gelişme sürecinde önemli ölçüde mali dalgalanma deneyimi yaşamıştır. Biz bu çalışmamızda, bu dalgalanma deneyimleri ile ilgili olarak, seçim dönemlerinde uygulanan mali politikalarla ilgili süreci alan taraması kapsamında sunmayı amaçlamaktayız. Politik konjonktür ve bütçesel dalgalanmalar da bu deneyimde büyük öneme sahiptir. Bu nedenle, çalışmamız bu konuları temel alan çalışmalara yoğunlaşmaktadır. Çalışmanın mali harcamaların artışıyla ilgili temel bulgusu; seçim sürecinin olası koşullarının politika ve bürokrasiyi verimli alanlardan, rant üreten faaliyetlere doğru yönlendirdiği şeklinde olup ve makro değişkenleri, başta büyüme olmak üzere, olumsuz anlamda etkileyebilir. Hükümet ile ilgili siyasi belirsizliğin genel bir istikrarsızlığa neden olabileceği konusu da bulgular arasında yer almaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
Seçim, Maliye Politikası, Konjonktür ve Bütçe Dalgalanması
THE ELECTION PROCESS AND FISCAL POLICY CYCLES: A SURVEY
All industrial economies have been experienced significant fiscal policy cycle in their economic process. Related with these cycles, the paper is about basic level study about fiscal policies around elections within restricted theoretical background. Both political and budget cycles have crucial rules for understanding cyclical effects of fiscal policy around elections as well. That’s why; this paper could be focused given basic literature related with these subjects. In this paper, the main argument is uncertainty about remaining in power results in increased fiscal spending, which in turn distorts incentives by pushing individuals away from productive work to rent-seeking activities; then, distorted incentives affect growth. Finally, policy uncertainty as measured by the variability of government capacity will be reason of instability conditions as a whole.
Keywords:
Election, Fiscal Policy, Business and Budget Cycle,
___
- AGHION,P.,MARINESCU,I.,CABELLERO,R.,KASHYAP,A.(2007),Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 22; 251-293.
- ALESİNA,A.;CAMPANTE,F.,TABELLINI,G.(2008),Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?, Journal of The European Economic Association, Vol.6: 1006-1036.
- ANGELOPOULOS,K.,ECONOMİDES,G.(2008),Fiscal policy, rent seeking, and growth under electoral uncertainty: theory and evidence from the OECD, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 41; 1375-1405.
- BAEZ,J.E.,CAMACHO,A.,CONOVER,E.,ZARATE,R.A.(2012), Conditional Cash Transfers, Political Participation, and Voting Behavior, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6215, Impact Evaluation Series No. 66, 1-34.
- BERLEMANN,M.,MARKWARDT,G.(2007),Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 39: 1919-1945.
- CHAUVET,L.,COLLIER,P.(2009),Elections and economic policy in developing countries, Economic Policy, Vol.59: 509-550.
- FENG,Y.(2001),Political Freedom, Political Instability, and Policy Uncertainty: A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 45: 271–294.
- GRIER,K.(2008),US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004, Public Choice, Vol.135: 337–352.
- HIBBS,D.(1977),Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 71: 1467-1487.
- HOU,Y.(2006),Budgeting for Fiscal Stability over the Business Cycle: A Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and the Multiyear Perspective on Budgeting, Public Administration Review, Vol.66: 730-741.
- KACHELEIN,H.,LAMI,E.,IMAMI,D.,(2010), Elections Related Cycles in Publicly Supplied Goods in Albania, Bamberg Economic Research Group (BERG) Working Paper No. 71 on Government and Growth, 1-25.
- KAYSER,M.A.(2005),Who Surfs, Who Manipulates? The Determinants of Opportunistic Election Timing and Electorally Motivated Economic Intervention, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 99: 17-27.
- LALVANI,M.(1999),Elections and Macropolicy Signals: Political Budget Cycle Hypothesis, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 34; 2676-2681.
- MIERAU,J.,JONG-A-PIN,R.,DE HAAN,J.(2007),Do political variables affect fiscal policy adjustment decisions? New empirical evidence, Public Choice, Vol.133; 297–319.
- MOLANDER,P.(2001),Budgeting Procedures and Democratic Ideals: An Evaluation of Swedish Reforms, Journal of Public Policy, Vol. 21: 23-52.
- NETO,A.F.,VERNENGO,M.(2005),Fiscal Policy and the Washington Consensus: A Post Keynesian Perspective, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol. 27: 333-343.
- NORDHAUS,W.D.(1975),The Political Business Cycle, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 42: 169–190.
- ROGOFF,K.,SIBERT,A.(1988),Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 55: 1-16.
- RUBIN,I.(2009),Response: Prospects for Budget Process Renewal, Public Administration Review, Vol.69: 245-248.
- SAPORITI,A.,STREB,J.M.(2008),Separation of Powers and Political Budget Cycles, Public Choice, Vol.137: 329–345
- SCHUKNECHT,L.(2000),Fiscal Policy Cycles and Public Expenditure in Developing Countries, Public Choice, Vol.102: 115-130.
- TREISMAN,D.,GIMPELSON,V.(2001),Political Business Cycles and Russian Elections, or the Manipulations of ‘Chudar’, British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 31: 225-246.
- http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ 15.03.2013, 15:36.
- ISSN: 2757-6396
- Başlangıç: 1955
- Yayıncı: İstanbul Üniversitesi