İşsizlik, Kamu Harcamaları ve İç Göçler Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Bu çalışmada işsizlik, kamu harcamaları ve iç göçler arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem nedensellik ilişkileri Türkiye özelinde incelenmektedir. Bu doğrultuda 2008 ile 2015 yıllarını kapsayan dönem esas alınarak 81 İl'e ilişkin veri seti oluşturulmuştur. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler panel vektör hata düzeltme modelleri aracılığıyla sınanmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar, üç değişkenin de gerek kısa gerekse uzun dönemde birbirleriyle etkileşim içerisinde olduğunu göstermiştir. İllerin aldığı göç ve işsizlik oranı değişkenlerinden kamu harcamalarına doğru hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Yine kısa dönemde alınan göç ve kamu harcamaları arasında çift yönlü, kamu harcamalarından verilen göçe doğru ise tek yönlü bir ilişki söz konusudur. Bu bulgular, bölgesel dengesizliklerin hem nedeni hem de sonucu olan işsizlik ve göç sarmalı ile maliye politikasının en önemli araçlarından biri niteliğindeki kamu harcamaları arasında çok yönlü ve girift bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İşsizlik, İstihdam Politikası, Kamu Harcamaları, Göç, Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli

The Causal Relationship between Unemployment, Public Spending and Internal Migration: A Review on Turkey

In this study, the short and long run causalities amongunemployment, public spending and internal migration are examined in Turkey. In this regard, a data set is created with using 81 cities panel data for 2008 – 2015 periods. Relations among variables are tested through panel error correction models. The results obtained in the study show that three variables have been interacting with each other for both the short and long run. Indeed, there is a one-way causality relationship from immigration and unemployment rates to public spending in the short and long run. However in the short term, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between in-immigration and public spending. Also there is a one-way causal relationship from public spending to outimmigration. These findings reveal that the versatile and intricate relationship between public spending, one of the most important instruments of fiscal policy with unemployment, and migration is both a cause and a consequence of regional imbalances

Keywords:

Unemployment, Employment Policy, Public Spending, Migration, Vector Error Correction Model,

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