Öznur IŞINKARALAR, Kaan IŞINKARALAR, Hakan ŞEVİK, Ömer KÜÇÜK

Biyo-İklimsel Konfor ve İklim Değişikliği İlişkisi: Burdur Havzası'nda Bir Örnek Çalışma

Çalışmanın amacı: İklim değişikliği, karada ve denizde biyoçeşitliliğin kaybolması, orman alanlarının tahribatı, yoksulluk, eşitsizlik, ekonomik kalkınma gibi birçok sorunu tetiklemektedir. Yaşam kalitesinin ve sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın en güçlü göstergelerinden biri biyo-iklimsel konfor değerleri aralığında olan sıcaklık, nem ve rüzgar koşullarıdır. Küresel ısınmanın etkisiyle bu parametrelerde meydana gelen değişimler canlılığı tehdit etmekte ve kentlerde mekan kullanımını ve yaşam kalitesini etkilemektedir. Çalışmada, araştırma alanında biyoiklimsel konfor alanlarının iklim değişikliğinin etkisiyle değişiminin modellenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışma alanı: Araştırma, sınırlarında bulundurduğu yer altı ve yer üstü su kütleleri ile göller bölgesini kapsayan ve önlem alınması gereken bir alan olan Türkiye’nin Burdur Havzası'nda yürütülmüştür. Materyal ve Yöntem: Modeller, 2100 yılına kadar 20 yıllık aralıklarla üretilmiştir. Zamansal-mekansal değişimler IPCC'nin SSPs 245 ve SSPs 585 senaryolarına göre üretilmiştir. Biyo-iklimsel uygunluğu belirlemek için rahatsızlık indeksi (DI) ve Etkili Sıcaklık alma rüzgar hızı (ETv) kullanıldı. Sonuçlar: DI'ya göre bugün alanın %87,4'ü soğuk bölgedeyken, 2100'de SSP245'e göre %50.5'i ve SSP585'e göre %98.3'ü rahat bölgede olacaktır. ETv'ye göre ise alanın %92.7'si bugün oldukça serin, 2100'de alanın %90'ı SSP 245'e göre biraz serin sınıflandırmasında olacak ve SSP585'e göre %89.3'ü ılıman alanlara dönüşecektir. Araştırma Vurguları: Araştırma sonuçları iklim değişikliğinin mekansal olarak etkisini yasnıtmakta olup, havza ölçeğinde bütüncül risk yönetimi açısından önemlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İklim Riski, Sürdürülebilir Gelişme, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri, Küresel Isınma, IPCC

Bio-climatic Comfort and Climate Change Nexus: A Case Study in Burdur Basin

Aim of study: Climate change triggers many problems, such as loss of biodiversity on land and sea, destruction of forest areas, poverty, inequality, and economic development. One of the most vital indicators of quality of life and sustainable development is temperature, humidity, and wind conditions, which are in the range of bio-climatic comfort values. The changes in these parameters due to global warming threaten vitality and affect the use of space and quality of life in cities. The study aimed to model the evolution of bioclimatic comfort zones with the effect of climate change in the research area. Area of study: The research was carried out in the Burdur Basin of Türkiye, which is an area that includes the underground and surface water bodies and the lakes region within its borders. Material and Methods: Models were produced at 20-year intervals until 2100. The spatio-temporal variations are generated according to the IPCC's SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 scenarios. The discomfort index (DI) and Effective warming wind speed (ETv) were used to determine bioclimatic comfort. Main Results: According to the DI, 87.4% of the area will be in the cold zone today, while in 2100, 50.5%, according to the SSP245, and 98.3%, according to the SSP 585 will be in the comfort zone. According to ETv, 92.7% of the area is quite cool today; by 2100, 90% of the site will be classified as slightly cool according to SSP 245, and 89.3%, according to SSP 585 will turn into mild areas. Research highlights: The results of the research reflect the spatial impact of climate change and are significant in terms of holistic risk management at the basin scale

Keywords:

Climate Risk, Sustainable Development, Geographic Information Systems, Global Warming, IPCC,

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