Karadeniz’de Meydana Gelmiş Deniz Fırtınalarının Sayısal Modellenmesi

Bu çalışmanın hedefi, Karadeniz’de ekstrem dalga şartlarını tahmin edebilmek için sayısal dalga tahmin modellerini kullanmaktır. Geçmişte, Bulgaristan kıyıları boyunca belirgin hasarlara neden olan iki tarihsel fırtına Şubat 1979 ve Şubat 6-8, 2012 , Karadeniz’in doğu bölgesini etkileyen tarihsel bir fırtına Şubat 2003 ve Karadeniz’in güney kıyılarını etkileyen iki fırtına Şubat 1999 ve Mart 2013 meydana gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Karadeniz’in kıyılarını güçlü bir şekilde etkilemiş bu fırtınaların sayısal modellenmesi için analizler yürütülmüştür. Üçüncü nesil sayısal dalga tahmin modeli SWAN, bu fırtınalar boyunca meydana gelmiş dalgaların tahmini için Karadeniz’e uygulanmıştır. ERA-Interim ve CFSR rüzgar alanları fırtınaların modellenmesinde SWAN modele girdi olarak tanımlanmıştır. Sonuçların doğrulaması, iki fırtına boyunca iki ölçüm istasyonundan Hopa istasyonunda 1999 yılına ait ve Gelendzhik istasyonunda 2003 yılına ait ölçüm verileri temin edilmiş dalga ölçümleri ile karşılaştırılarak yapılmıştır. Bunlara ilave olarak, fırtınaların alansal ve zamansal gelişimleri incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre; CFSR rüzgar alanlarını kullanan SWAN modelinin, ERA Interim rüzgar alanlarını kullanan modele göre daha iyi olduğu ve geliştirilmiş kombinasyonlar arasında rüzgar artışı olarak Komen formülünü ve köpüklenme için köpüklenme katsayısı Cds 1,5 olarak ayarlanmış Janssen formülünü içeren kombinasyonun Komen & Janssen Cds= 1.5 en iyi sonuçlara sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Karadeniz, Sayısal modelleme, Deniz fırtınaları, SWAN

Numerical Modelling of Sea Storms occurred over the Black Sea

The objective of this study is to use numerical wave models to predict the extreme storm conditions in the Black Sea. In the past and recent years, two historical storms February 1979 and February 6-8, 2012 that caused significant damages along the Bulgarian coast and a historical storm February 2003 affecting the eastern part of the Black Sea and two storms February 1999 and March 2013 that impacted southern coast of the Black Sea were reported in the Black Sea. In this study, simulations are conducted for these past and recent storms that strongly affected the coasts of the Black Sea. The third-generation numerical wave hindcast model SWAN has been applied. ERA-Interim and CFSR winds are used as inputs to the SWAN model for modelling of the storms. The validation of the results is made by performing comparisons against in situ measurements from two buoys data for 1999 at Hopa and 2003 at Gelendzhik during two storms. In addition, spatial and temporal developments of the storms are examined. According to the results obtained it is seen that SWAN model using the CFSR wind fields performed better than SWAN model with ERA Interim winds and, among the used combinations, it is determined that the combination including Komen formulation for wind growth and Janssen formulation for whitecapping with Cds=1.5 Komen & Janssen Cds= 1.5 is the best.

Keywords:

SWAN, Sea storms, Numerical modelling, Black Sea,

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