TÜRKİYE'DE ENFLASYON HEDEFLEMESİNİN MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANS ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ

Diğer gelişmekte olan ülkelerde olduğu gibi Türkiye 1970'lerden sonra yüksek ve kronik bir enflasyon sorunu yaşamıştır. 1990'lardaki başarısız parasal hedefleme ve döviz kuru hedeflemesinin ardından 2002 yılında "örtük enflasyon hedeflemesi" stratejisini kabul etmiştir. Gerekli önkoşullar sağlandıktan sonra 2006 yılında "açık enflasyon hedeflemesi" resmi olarak ilan edilmiştir.Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye'de uygulanan enflasyon hedeflemesinin makroekonomik performans üzerindeki etkisini değerlendirmektir. Bu amaçla yapılan regresyon analizinde enflasyon hedeflemesinin enflasyon, enflasyon ataleti ve faiz oranlarını düşürdüğü ancak büyüme üzerinde önemli bir etkisinin olmadığı görülmüştür. Tüm bu sonuçlar literatürde öne çıkan argümanlarla örtüşmektedir. Sonuç olarak enflasyon hedeflemesi Türkiye'de makroekonomik performansı olumlu etkilediği bu çalışmayla ortaya çıkmıştır.

THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION TARGETING ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN TURKEY

Like other developing countries after 1970's Turkey has experienced a high and chronic inflation problem. After an unsuccessful monetary targeting and exchange rate targeting experience in 1990's, Turkey adopted "implicit inflation targeting" in 2002. Having implemented the preconditions for inflation targeting, Turkey adopted officially "open inflation targeting" in 2006.The objective of this study is to evaluate macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting that has earlier been applied in Turkey. For this purpose, in the regression analysis that was performed, the results obtained are as follows: inflation targeting has decreased inflation rate, inflation persistence and interest rate; however, any important relationship has not been determined to exist between growth rate and inflation targeting. All these findings were found to be consistent with the prominent arguments in literature. In conclusion, through our study, inflation targeting was determined to have favourable effect on macroeconomic performance in Turkey.

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