Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach
ABSTRACT: This study estimates Turkey’s import demand model for lint cotton between 1966-2009, utilizing the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) demonstrates that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. While the import demand for lint cotton is escalated by income and liberalization policies in the long-run, it is estimated that relative prices and production/consumption coverage ratio will decrease. With the lifting of quotas in 2005, Turkey’s textile and apparel sector gained competitive advantage over the competitors in other countries and increased its profitability. Thus, the increase in imports continues as the domestic cotton production fails to meet the demand of the textile sector.Key Words: Lint cotton, liberalization, cointegration, bounds testTürkiye Lif Pamuk İthalat Talebi Esnekliği Tahmini: Otoregressif Gecikme Dağılımlı Sınır Testi YaklaşımıÖZET: Bu çalışma, Türkiye lif pamuk ithalat talebi modelini 1966-2009 dönemi için eştümleşimde sınır testi yaklaşımını kullanarak tahmin eder. Otoregressif gecikme dağılımlı model değişkenler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Lif pamuk ithalat talebini, uzun dönemde, gelir ve liberalleşme politikaları arttırırken nispi fiyat ve üretimin tüketimi karşılama oranın azaltacağı tahmin edilmiştir. Türkiye tekstil ve konfeksiyon sektörü 2005 yılında kotaların kaldırılmasıyla birlikte diğer ülkelere göre rekabet üstünlüğü sağlayarak karlılığını arttırmıştır. Bu yüzden, yurtiçi pamuk üretimi tekstil sektörünün talebini karşılamadığından ithalat artışı sürmektedir.Anahtar Kelimeler: Lif pamuk, liberalleşme, eş tümleşim, sınır testi
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