APPLICATIONS OF THEORIES OF COMPELEXITY AND CHAOS TO GOLD PRICES

Chaos theory is considered as a new subject in understanding non linear system’s dynamic behaviours. Chaos theorem is used in several fields such as mathematics, physics, chemistry as well as in finance and economics sector. Although, there is a enourmous demand for gold, gold prices are volatile because of different reasons. This volatility chould be reduced by chaos theory. Also, the aim is to show whether gold prices data shows any chaotic behavior or not.

KAOS VE KARMAŞIKLIK TEORİSİNİN ALTIN FİYATLARINA UYGULANMASI

Kaos teorisi, doğrusal olmayan sistemlerin dinamik davranışlarını anlamada yeni bir konu olarak kabul edilir. Kaos teori, matematik, fizik, kimya gibi finans ve ekonomi sektörlerinde de kullanılmaktadır. Altın için büyük bir talep olmasına rağmen, altın fiyatları farklı sebeplerden dolayı değişkenlik gösteriyor. Bu dalgalanma kaos teorisi ile azaltılabilir. Amacımız, altın fiyatlarının herhangi bir kaotik davranışı gösterip göstermediğini bulmaktır.

___

Alptekin, V., Güvenek, B. & Boyacıoğlu, M. A. (2010). Modelling volatility of the gold prices by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity method: The Case of Turkey. Journal of Academic Research in Economics, Vol:1.

Chatrath, A., Adrangi, B. & Shank, T. (2001) Nonlinear dependence in gold and silver futures: Is it chaos? , The American Economist, Vol:45 (2).

Frear, D. (2011). The effect of change on management planning: Applying chaos theory. International Journal of Business and Social Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 14.

Grassberger, P. & Procaccia I. (1983). Dimension and entropies of strange attractors from a fluctuating dynamics approach. Physica, 13, pp:34-54.

Ismail, Z., Yahya, A. & Shabri, A. (2009). Forecasting gold prices using multiple linear regression method. American Journal of Applied Sciences 5 (8): 1509- 1514.

Jinguang, W. & Li, M. (2008). A study on transmission mechanism of financial supervision with chaos Theory. Canadian Social Science, Vol. 6, No.2,

Karaçalı, Ö. & Demirci, H. Ġ. (2009). Application of chaos theory to data modelling method based on the alternative scenarios manufacturing information systems. Teknoloji, 7 (2), 123-132.

Kearney, A. & Lombra, R. (2008). Nonneutral short-run effects of derivatives on gold prices. Applied Financial Economics, 8, 985-994.

Nguyen, H. L. (2011) Managing sme’s survival from financial crisis in a transition economy: A Chaos Theory Approach. Journal of General Management, vol:1

Sloan, K. (2011). Viewing organizations through the lens of chaos theory: Thoughts on applicability and usefulness. European Journal of Social Sciences- Vol. 10, No. 3.

Sorin, V. (2010). Chaos models in economics. Annals of the University of Oradea, Economic Science Series,11.

Takens F. (1981). Detecting strange attractors in turbulance. New-York: SpringerVerlag, pp .366-381.

Toraman, C., Başarır, Ç. & Bayramoğlu, M. F. (2011). Determination of factors affecting the price of gold: A study of mgarch model. Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business, vol:13.

Vatti, R. R. (2008). An investigation of gold price. Proceedings for the Northeast Region Decision Sciences Institute (NEDSI), Vol:14.

Vatti, R. R. (1973). Gold price before and after the subprime crisis. Proceedings of the Northeast Business & Economics Association, Vol:15.
Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 1309-4289
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2010
  • Yayıncı: Kafkas Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi