Arash SAMİZADEH MASHHADİ, Noori SAADY, Carlos BAZAN

Predicting cost of dairy farm-based biogas plants: A North American perspective

Livestock manure and organic agriculture wastes are an environmental challenge because they contribute to climate change by emitting greenhouse gases. Converting these organic wastes to biogas and bioenergy is a sustainable solution. Farmers, investors, and governmental departments involved in developing on-farm biogas projects need an informed decision-making process to fund such projects. Thus, estimating the required initial investment for a farm-based biogas plant is crucial. This study aims to develop two methods to estimate the cost of farm-based biogas projects, determine their economic viability, and predict the cost of each part of the plant and its related risks. A database for farm-based biogas projects in Canada and the USA was established and analyzed before developing the models. First, six mathematical models were developed using linear regression to predict the capital cost, engineering and design, operation and maintenance, gross revenue, and net profit using Monte Carlo simulation. Second, the probability of cost of components is calculated. The marginal error of cost prediction in initial modeling is about 7% in total, and the economic viability of a biogas plant for a farm housing less than 300 cows is questionable.

Keywords:

Biogas, Cost Modeling, Monte Carlo, On-farm,

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