TURKISH STEEL PRODUCER COMPANIES’ REACTION TO TRUMP'S AUGUST 10, 2018 TWEET OF DOUBLING TARIFFS: AN EVENT STUDY ANALYSIS

Purpose- Stock markets are reacting to different events that happened inside or outside the company. The dissemination of information on social media is one of the events affecting the performance stock market. The main aim of this paper is to examine the reaction of steel producer companies listed in Borsa Istanbul to Trump's tweet of doubling tariffs on steel products importing from Turkey to the US on August 10, 2018. Methodology- The event study analysis was applied to investigate the impact of Trump's Tweet. Daly adjusted closing prices for sample companies and BIST100 index covering 156 days between January 1, 2018 - August 17, 2018, was collected from Yahoo’s finance Website. The selected sample companies for this study are Çemtas Çelik Makina Sanayi ve Ticaret (CEMTS), Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari (EREGL, Gentas Genel Metal Sanayi ve Ticaret (GENTS), Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik (ISDMR) andKardemir Karabük Demir Çelik Sanayi Ve Ticaret (KRDMD). The market model was used to determine the normal stock return in the estimation period. A t-test was used to examine the significance of abnormal returns of sample companies' stock. BIST100 index used as a proxy of the market. Findings- The finding shows that from the sample companies investigated in this study; CEMTS, EREGL, GENTS and KRDMD stocks are not significantly affected by Trump’s tweet. ISDMR was the only stock among the samples vent that affected by the negatively and significantly with t-statistic (-2.18) at 5% significance level. Conclusion- In general, the finding of the study indicated that Trump’s Tweet was not significantly affected the performance of Turkey’s steel producer companies listed in Borsa Istanbul.

___

  • Almumani, M. A. (2014). Determinants of equity share prices of the listed banks in Amman stock exchange: Quantitative approach. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 5(1), 91-104.
  • Arslan, D., Dost, P. & Wilson, G. (2018, August 7). US-Turkey Relations: From Alliance to Crisis. Atlantic Council. Retrieved April 10, 2019, from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/us-turkey-relations-from-alliance-to-crisis
  • Beverley, L. (2008). Stock Market Event Studies and Competition Commission Inquiries (No. 08-16). Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia.Bollen, J., Mao, H., & Zeng, X. (2011). Twitter mood predicts the stock market. Journal of computational science, 2(1), 1-8.
  • Chen, H., De, P., Hu, Y. J., & Hwang, B. H. (2014). Wisdom of crowds: The value of stock opinions transmitted through social media. The Review of Financial Studies, 27(5), 1367-1403.
  • Chen, H., De, P., Hu, Y., & Hwang, B. H. (2011, June). Sentiment revealed in social media and its effect on the stock market. In 2011 IEEE Statistical Signal Processing Workshop (SSP) (pp. 25-28). IEEE.
  • Deng, S., Huang, Z. J., Sinha, A. P., & Zhao, H. (2018). The Interaction between Microblog Sentiment and Stock Return: An Empirical Examination. MIS quarterly, 42(3), 895-918.
  • Dunkley, E. & Lockett,H. (2019, February 25). China stocks rally after Trump tweet on tariffs delay. Financial Times. Retrieved April 05, 2019, from https://www.ft.com/content/981da9c0-38ad-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0
  • Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. Journal of finance, 25(2), 383-417.
  • Fama, E. F., Fisher, L., Jensen, M. C., & Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International economic review, 10(1), 1-21.
  • Fiala, V., Kapounek, S., & Veselý, O. (2015). Impact of Social Media on the Stock Market: Evidence from Tweets. European Journal of Business Science and Technology, 1(1), 24-35. Ge, Q., Kurov, A., & Wolfe, M. H. (2017). Stock market reactions to presidential social media usage: Evidence from company-specific tweets. Working Paper.
  • Global Steel Trade Monitor. (2018, September). Steel Exports Report: Turkey. Was¬hington, DC.
  • Gunerigok, S. (2018, August 10). Trump attacks Turkey in tweet that says 'relations' bad. Anadolu Agency. Retrieved April 15, 2019, from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-attacks-turkey-in-tweet-that-says-relations-bad/1227713#
  • Juheng Zhang (2016). Social Media Content on Financial Markets. International Journal of New Technology and Research (IJNTR) ISSN:2454-4116, Volume-2, Issue-3, Pages 134-137.
  • Juma'h, A., & Alnsour, Y. (2018). Using Social Media Analytics: The Effect of President Trump's Tweets on Companies' Performance.
  • Luo, X., Zhang, J., & Duan, W. (2013). Social media and firm equity value. Information Systems Research, 24(1), 146-163.
  • Peterson, P. P. (1989). Event studies: A review of issues and methodology. Quarterly journal of business and economics, 36-66.
  • Phillips, M. (2018, December 4). Trump Warns China That He’s ‘Tariff Man,’ Spooking Stock Investors. The New York Times. Retrieved April 01, 2019, from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/04/business/yield-curve-recession-stock-market.html
  • Schweitzer, R. (1989). How do stock returns react to special events. Business Review, 8, 17-29.
  • Yu, Y., Duan, W., & Cao, Q. (2013). The impact of social and conventional media on firm equity value: A sentiment analysis approach. Decision Support Systems, 55(4), 919-926.