Edirne, Tekirdağ, Kırklareli ve İstanbul İllerinde Atmosferik Engelleme ve Sıcak-Soğuk Hava Dalgaları İlişkisi

Bu çalışma 2010-2019 yılları arasında; Edirne, Tekirdağ, Kırklareli ve Sarıyer-Kumköy-Kilyos istasyonlarında gözlenen sıcak-soğuk hava dalgaları ve atmosferik engelleme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek amacıyla yapılmıştır. Sıcak ve soğuk hava dalgalarının referans değerleri için her istasyondaki mevsimlik sıcaklık verilerinin 90. ve 10. persantil değerleri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan çalışmanın sonucu olarak; soğuk hava dalgalarının ilkbahar mevsiminde ortalama olay sayısı atmosferik engelleme gerçekleşen günlerde engelleme olmayan günlere göre en az %25 azalma olsa da, soğuk hava dalgalarının ortalama sürelerinin en az %13 arttığı tespit edilmiştir. Yaz mevsiminde ise atmosferik engellemenin olduğu günlerdeki soğuk hava dalgalarının ortalama olay sayısı, engelleme olmayan günlerde görülen ortalama olay sayısının en az 3,5 katıdır ve aynı zamanda yaşanan olayların ortalama sayısının da en ez %30 arttığı görülmüştür. Soğuk hava dalgaları ve atmosferik engelleme arasında çalışılan istasyonlarda kış mevsimi için genel bir yargıya ulaşılamamıştır fakat sonbahar mevsiminde genel olarak ortalama olay süresinin arttığı görülmektedir. Sıcak hava dalgaları için, kış mevsiminde engellemeli günlerdeki ortalama olay sayısı engelleme olmayan günlerdeki olay sayısının en az yarısına düştüğü görülmektedir. Buna rağmen olayların süresinde belirgin bir değişim görülmemektedir. Sıcak hava dalgası ve atmosferik engelleme olayları arasında bahar mevsimlerinde herhangi bir sonuca ulaşılamamıştır. Daha doğru ve anlamlı sonuçların elde edilmesi için 10 yıl değil, daha uzun süreli araştırmaların yapılması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

atmosferik engelleme, sıcak hava dalgası, soğuk hava dalgası

Atmospheric Blocking and Heat-Cold Waves Relationship in Edirne, Tekirdağ, Kırklareli, Istanbul Provinces

This study was conducted to examine the relationship between atmospheric blocking and heat-cold waves observed at Edirne, Tekirdağ, Kırklareli, and Sarıyer-Kumköy-Kilyos stations between 2010 and 2019. For reference value of heat-cold waves, seasonal values at each station are given for the 90th-10th percentile of the data. In the results of the study, although the average number of events in the spring of cold waves decreased by at least 25% on the days with blocking compared to the days without blocking, it was determined that the average duration of the cold waves increased by at least 13%. In the summer season, the average number of cold wave events on days with obstruction is at least 3.5 times the average number of events on days without blocking, and also, the average number of events has increased by at least 30%. There is no general judgment for the winter season at the stations where cold waves and atmospheric blocking are studied, but it is observed that the average event duration generally increases in the autumn season. For heatwaves, it is seen that the average number of events on unblocked days in winter falls to at least half the number of events on non-blocking days. However, there is no significant change in the duration of the events. Between the heatwave and atmospheric blocking, no results were achieved in the spring and autumn season. To obtain more accurate and meaningful results, more long-term studies are required, not 10 years.

Keywords:

atmospheric blocking, heat waves, cold waves,

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