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Dış Ticaret Haddi’nin Dış Ticaret Dengesine Etkisi: Türkiye’deki Endüstriler İçin “S Eğrisi Yaklaşımı”nın Geçerliliği

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin Uluslararası Standart Ticaret Sınıflamasına (SITC Rev. 3, 1. düzeyde) göre 1 kodlu içki ve tütün, 2 kodlu akaryakıt hariç yenilmeyen hammaddeler, 3 kodlu mineral yakıtlar, yağlar ve alkali ürünleri, 4 kodlu hayvansal, bitkisel katı ve sıvı yağlar, mumlar, 5 kodlu başka yerde belirtilmeyen kimya sanayi ve buna bağlı sanayi ürünleri, 6 kodlu başlıca sınıflara ayrılan işlenmiş mallar, 7 kodlu makinalar ve ulaştırma araçları ile 8 kodlu çeşitli mamul eşya endüstrileri için “S Eğrisi etkisi”nin geçerliliği 2002:01-2014:12 dönemi aylık verilerle araştırılmıştır. Çapraz korelasyon analizleri 1, 2, 4, 5 ve 8 kodlu endüstrilerinde S Eğrisi etkisinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

S Eğrisi, Çapraz Korelasyon Fonksiyonu, Portmanteau χ2 Testi

The Effect of Terms of Foreign Trade on The Balance of Foreign Trade: The Validity of “S-Curve Approach” for The Industries in Turkey

In this study, the validity of S Curve effect for the period of 2002:01-2014:12 is investigated in the following industries of Turkey, classified by the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC Rev. 3, 1 level)); section 1- beverages and tobacco; section 2-crude materials, inedible, except fuels; section 3- mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials; section 4- animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes; section 5- chemicals and related products, n.e.s.; section 6: manufactured goods classified chiefly by material; section 7- machinery and transport equipment; section 8- miscellaneous manufactured articles. Cross correlation analyses indicate that S Curve effect is found in the sections 1, 2, 4, 5 and 8.

Keywords:

S-Curve, Cross Correlation Function, Portmanteau χ2 Test,

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