AB Ülkelerinde ve Türkiye'de İşsizlik Histerisinin Fourier-KPSS Birim Kök Testi ile İncelenmesi

İşsizlik oranındaki değişiklikler ve bazı AB ülkelerinde işsizlik histerisi politika yapıcılar için önemli zorluklar doğurmaktadır. Ülkedeki işsizlik oranlarının yapısının işsizlik histerisi veya doğal oran hipotezi ile daha iyi açıklandığını belirlemek, politika yapıcılarının uygun politikaları oluşturabilmeleri açısından önem kazanmaktadır. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada işsizlik histerisi hipotezi Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye için 1991-2016 yıllarını esas alarak Nazlıoğlu ve Karul (2017) tarafından önerilen yapısal kaymaları ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alan Fourier- KPSS panel durağanlık testi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin Letonya, Belçika, Kıbrıs ve İsveç haricindeki diğer AB ülkeleri ve Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Fourier-KPSS, işsizlik histerisi hipotezi, Avrupa Birliği, Türkiye

An Investigation of the Hysteresis in Unemployment in EU Countries and Turkey with Fourier-KPSS Unit Root Test

The changes in the unemployment rate and its hysteria in some EU countries impose significant challenges to policy makers. To implement appropriate policies, it is important to examine whether the movement of the unemployment rates in the country is better corresponded by the unemployment hysteresis or by the natural rate hypothesis of unemployment. Therefore, this study examines the hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for European Union countries and Turkey for the period of 1991–2016. For the test we utilize Fourier- KPSS panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts and cross-section dependency proposed by Nazlioglu and Karul (2017). The results reveal that unemployment hysteresis hypothesis cannot be rejected for the EU countries and Turkey except for Latvia, Belgium, Cyprus and Sweden.

Keywords:

Fourier-KPSS, unemployment hysteresis hypothesis, European Union, Turkey,

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