Ulaştırma yatırımları ve özellikle de kentiçi koridorlarda gerçekleştirilecek olan toplu taşıma yatı- rımlarında hangi ulaştırma türünün tercih edileceği son derece önemli bir karardır. Bu tercihte birbölümü nicel bir bölümü ise nitel olan pek çok faktör etkili olur. Ölçüt olarak kabul edilen bu fak- törlerin hepsinin birlikte değerlendirmede etkili olmasını sağlayacak yöntemlerden bir tanesi, birçok ölçütlü karar verme yöntemi olan analitik hiyerarşi yöntemidir. Bu çalışmada bir kentiçi kori- dorda, hangi toplu taşıma sisteminin uygulanması gerektiğine ilişkin verilecek olan karar süreciiçin analitik hiyerarşi yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Öte yandan, toplu taşıma türünün seçimi, seçenek tür- lerin performanslarının koşullara göre nasıl değişeceği öngörülerek yapılmalıdır. Toplu taşıma sis- temlerinde performans göstergelerinden önemli bir tanesi taşıtların yolculuk süreleridir. Taşıtlarınyolculuk süreleri bir dizi etmene göre değişmektedir. Değişen yolcu talebi, durak aralıkları, ödemetürü ve buna bağlı olarak ödeme süresi, taşıt hızı, yolcuların taşıtlara biniş ve iniş süresi gibi koşul- lara göre toplu taşıma sistemlerinin performanslarının nasıl değiştiğini görebilmek için bu çalış- mada bir simülasyon modeli geliştirilmiştir. Bu simülasyon modeli ile elde edilen sonuçlar, toplutaşıma türleri arasında seçim yapılması amacıyla kullanılan analitik hiyerarşi yöntemine uyarlan- mıştır. Analitik hiyerarşi yönteminde, toplu taşıma türü seçimi için göz önüne alınacak diğer ölçüt- ler belirlenmiştir. Ölçütlerin kendi aralarında ve iki toplu taşıma türü seçeneği için ağırlıkları anketve sayısal değerlerin karşılaştırılması ile saptanmıştır. Bu simülasyon destekli analitik hiyerarşiyöntemi, İstanbul kenti içerisindeki iki koridorda “otobüs yolu” ve “tramvay” seçenekleri için uy- gulanmıştır.

Critical decisions that are taken at the stage of planning new transportation investments or improving present transportation systems usually turn out to be selecting one alternative among others. The most important condition in transpor mode selection is to make a comparison between different alternatives. This comparison stage is perhaps the most precision-requiring stage in the transport mode selection process. The comparison process has many difficulties. The foremost difficulty is to decide on the factors to be included in the comparison. Some of these factors are quantitative or are capable of being quantified; many others are qualitative. Evaluation of the qualitative factors requires experience and enforces the correct jurisdictions. Therefore, defining the comparison process with just a quantitative model is not meaningful. Accordingly, expressing the results of the comparison analysis with just a single quantitative value would not be accurate. One of the important problems in comparing investment alter natives come out in including the some criteria that cannot be expressed numerically in the analysis These kinds of criteria are either incorrectly quanti fied and included in the analysis or they are being tried to be evaluated verbally. In this study, one of the methods that are developedfor including both numerical and nonnumeric crite ria in the evaluation, the analytical hierarchymethod is used. This method is supported by a traveltime simulation model; and an application that canbe useful in public transport mode selection is made.When deciding on a new investment that is going tobe made within an urban public transport system,several criteria, which expand over a broad scale,should be taken into consideration. Since they makenon-numerical important factors considerable, usingmultiple criteria decision making processes will bemore meaningful in selecting a public transportmode. Analytical hierarchy method, which is one ofmultiple criteria decision making methods, is used inthis study. This method provides meaningful resultsbecause of its simplicity and its ability to be adoptedfor different conditions. For evaluating some of thevarying physical conditions, a simulation model isdeveloped and used. Thus, the proposed method canbe called a simulation supported analytic hierarchymethod.Forecasting the possible performance of a publictransport mode in a corridor has numerous benefits.It is important to forecast the performance in orderto make accurate decisions on factors like vehiclefrequency, station places and station spacing and indeciding between more than one alternative. Thevarying performance of a public transport based oncharacteristics like varying passenger demand,speed, station spacing and boarding/alighting time(according to payment type and other physical fac tors) system can be forecasted with the help of asimulation model. Such a simulation model is devel oped in this study. The performance indicator in themodel is travel time. The model is run separately forbusway and tram systems. In this study, two different examples for an urbancorridor on which a public transport system will bebuilt were taken into consideration. The alternativesof “busway” and “tram” were evaluated in the twoexamples, which are the Beşiktaş-Levent and Tak sim-Aksaray corridors. As stated above, the analyti cal hierarchy method was utilised in deciding on thepublic transport alternative. In the analytical hier archy method, first, the weights (w) of each alterna tive and each criterion should be estimated. A surveywas organised in order to receive the experts’ opin ions. After assessing the expert opinions gatheredthrough the survey, relative weights of each crite rion was determined. In the following step, theweights of each criterion for each of the publictransport alternatives were estimated. For quantita tive criteria, information from different sources wasused; while for non-quantitative criteria, the secondpart of the survey was utilised. The weights of thecriteria at the lower level of the hierarchy, whichwas defined by the analytical hierarchy method,were estimated for busway and tram alternativesthrough the method explained above. In the follow ing step, these weights were multiplied by the crite ria’s own weights that are placed in the middle levelof the hierarchy. The results for each alternativewere then summed up in order to find a total weightfor each alternative. The results show that the rela tive weight of the busway is slightly higher than thatof the tram’s. With the analytical hierarchy method,the busway is found out to be a more preferable op tion than the tram.