Utku Can AYTAÇ, Tayfun KUCUKYİLMAZ, Göneç Seçil TARAKCIOĞLU

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Oyun Şirketi Gelirini Tahmin Etmeye Yönelik Zaman Serisi Modellerinin Karşılaştırılması

Online oyun sektörü, herhangi bir değişikliğin etkilerinin çok kısa sürede görülebildiği bir alandır. Bu nedenle; gelirlerin gerçek zamanlı analizi, geliştirilen içeriğin ticari performansının analizi ve içeriğe yapılan geliştirmelerin sağladığı gelir katkılarının anlık izlenmesi esastır. Bu durum; finansal tahminleri, bir şirkete ne kadar çok ve ne kadar hızlı büyümek istediği konusunda stratejik yardımı olabilecek bir iş planının çok önemli bir parçası haline getirir. Belirli bir zaman serisinin finansal tahmininde geleceğe yönelik gelir tahminleri, endüstride önemli bir araştırma konusu olmaktadır. Bu çalışma, son zamanlardaki zaman serisi modellerinin ayrıntılı bir analizini sunar ve gerçek dünya gelir verileri üzerinde zaman serisi tahmini için hem derin öğrenme hem de istatistiksel öğrenme metodlarına odaklıdır. Araştırmanın sonuçları; Finlandiya merkezli, önde gelen bir çevrimiçi oyun şirketinin gelir verileri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Deneylerimizde Dönemsel Otoregresif Entegre Hareketli Ortalama (SARIMA/Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), Theta, Holt Winters, Prophet, Yoğun Sinir Ağları (DNN/Dense Neural Network), Evrişimsel Sinir Ağları (CNN/Convolutional Neural Network), Uzun Kısa Süreli Bellek (LSTM/Long Short-Term Memory), N-Beats ve Ensemble gibi çeşitli zaman serisi tahmin yöntemlerini inceledik. Deneysel değerlendirmeler, derin öğrenme modellerinin, finansal tahmin işlemlerini optimize edebileceğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmanın sonucu, işletmecilere ve araştırmacılara hangi modeli benimsemenin en iyi olacağına karar verme konusunda farkındalık sağlayacaktır.
Anahtar Kelimeler:

Gelir tahmini, zaman serisi, DNN, SARIMA, CNN, Theta, Holt-Winters, Prophet

Comparison of Time Series Models for Predicting Online Gaming Company Revenue

Online gaming industry is an area where the effects of any change can be seen in a very short time. Therefore, real-time analysis of revenues, analysis of the commercial performance of the developed content, and rapid monitoring of the revenue contributions of the improvements are essential. Therefore, financial forecasting is a crucial part of business plan which can help strategize how much and how quickly the company intend to grow. In financial forecasting of a given time series, revenue estimations for future will become important research in the industry. This research offers a detailed analysis of recent time series models and focused on both deep learning and statistical methods for time series forecasting on real-world revenue data. Results of the study are examined using one of the leading Finland based online gaming companies’ revenue data. In our experiments, we investigated various time series forecast techniques, such as SARIMA, Theta, Holt Winters, Prophet, Dense Neural Network (DNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), N-Beats and Ensemble models. The experimental evaluations illustrate that deep learning models can optimize the financial forecast operations. The result of the study provides insights to managers and analysts in determining the best model to adopt.
Keywords:

Revenue forecast time series analysis;, SARIMA, Theta, Holt-Winters, Prophet, DNN, CNN, LSTM,

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İstatistik ve Uygulamalı Bilimler Dergisi-Cover
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2020
  • Yayıncı: Abdulkadir KESKİN
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