Bu
çalışmada Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi çerçevesinde global faiz oranlarının
dokuz gelişmekte olan ülke üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Avusturya İş
Çevrimleri Teorisi’ne göre, faiz oranlarındaki suni düşüş ekonominin kaynak
dağılımını bozarak sürdürülebilir olmayan bir ekonomik canlanmaya neden olmakta
ve süreç krizle sonuçlanmaktadır. Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi kapalı ve
açık ekonomiler için incelendikten sonra, 1996-2016 dönemi için panel VAR
modeli ile test edilmiştir. İlk olarak, ABD ve Euro Bölgesi faiz oranları ile
gelişmekte olan ülkelerin faiz oranları arasındaki ilişki incelenmiş ve her iki
faiz oranının da gelişmekte olan ülkelerin faizleri üzerinde belirleyici
etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra, üç faiz oranının gelişmekte
olan ülkelerin endüstriyel üretimi üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Yurt içi faizlerin yanı sıra,
özellikle ABD faiz oranının endüstriyel üretimdeki değişimler üzerinde önemli etkilere sahip olduğu
bulunmuştur.
In this study, it was analyzed the
effects of global interest rates on nine developing countries within the Austrian
business cycle theory. According to the Austrian Business Cycles Theory, the
artificial decline in interest rates disrupts the resource allocation of the
economy, causing an unsustainable economic recovery, and the process results in
a crisis. After examining the Austrian business cycle theory for closed and open
economies, the panel VAR model was tested for the 1996-2016 period. First, it
was investigated the relationship between the US-Euro Area interest rates and
interest rates of developing countries. It was found that both interest rates
have impacts on interest rates of developing countries. Then, it was analyzed
that the effects of these three interest rates on industrial production of
developing countries. Besides the domestic interest rates, especially the US
interest rate has significant effects on changing in industrial production.
___
Abrigo, M. R. M., ve Love, I. (2015). Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata. Stata Journal, 16(3), 778–804. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
Blaug, M. (1985). Economic Theory in Retrospect, Fourth Edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Cachanosky, N. (2014a). The effects of U.S. monetary policy on Colombia and Panama (2002-2007). Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 54(3), 428–436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2014.03.003
Cachanosky, N. (2014b). The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory, fiat currencies and open economies. Review of Austrian Economics, 27(3), 281–299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11138-012-0188-2
Cachanosky, N. (2015). U.S. monetary policy’s impact on Latin America’s structure of production (1960-2010). Latin American Journal of Economics, 52(2), 307–341.
Cachanosky, N. ve Hoffmann, A. (2016). Monetary Policy, the Composition of GDP and Crisis Duration in Europe. Global Economic Review, 45(2), 206–219. https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2015.1137484
Cowen, T. (1997). Risk and Business Cycles New and Old Austrian Perspectives. London and New York: Routledge.
Garrison, R. (2001). Time and Money. New York: Routledge.
Georgiadis, G. (2016). Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 41–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.010
Hayek, F. A. (1931). Prices and Production and Other Works. New York: Augustus M. Kelly, Publishers.
Hayek, F. A. (1939). Profits, Interest and Investment. London: George Routledge & Sons Ltd.
Hoffmann, A. (2010). An overinvestment cycle in central and eastern europe? Metroeconomica, 61(4), 711–734. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2010.04103.x
Hoffmann, A. ve Schnabl, G. (2013). Monetary Nationalism and International Economic Instability. Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 16, No. 2, 135-164
Hoffmann, A., ve Schnabl, G. (2016). Monetary policies of industrial countries, emerging market credit cycles and feedback effects. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38(5), 855–873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.08.002
Im, Kyung-So, Lee, J. ve Tieslau M. (2005). Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 393–419. https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1336.00
Luther, W. J., ve Mcelyea, J. P. (2018). Austrian Macroeconomics in Search of its Uniqueness. AIER Sound Money Project Working Paper No. 2018-05. AIER Sound Money Project Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 2015-05. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2998919
Mises, L. von. (1953). The Theory of Money and Credit. Indiana: Liberty Fund, Inc.
Mises, L. von. (2006). Economic Policy. Third Edition. Auburn, Alabama: Ludwig von Mises Institute.
Oppers, S. E. (2002). ABC theory: Old lessons for modern economic policy? IMF Working Paper, WP/02/2.
Taylor, J. B. (2007). Housing and Monetary Policy. New York, (September), 1–11.
Taylor, J. B. (2009). The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong. NBER Working Paper, No. 14631, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1108/13581980911004352