MUTLAK SATINALMA GÜCÜ PARİTESİ HİPOTEZİ’NİN TEST EDİLMESİ: TÜRKİYE VE DIŞ TİCARET ORTAKLARI UYGULAMASI

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin de aralarında bulunduğu 42 dış ticaret ortağı ülke için 1994:M1-2016:M9 aylık verilerini kullanarak “Mutlak Satınalma Gücü Paritesi-Mutlak SGP Hipotezi” nin geçerliliğini test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. SGP hipotezi, belli bir mal ve hizmet sepetinin, aynı para birimi cinsinden fiyatının tüm ülkelerde eşit olması gerektiğini iddia etmektedir. Çalışmada, Türkiye ve Türkiye’nin dış ticaret ortakları için SGP hipotezi, birinci nesil panel birim kök testleri, ikinci nesil panel birim kök testleri ve yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan birim kök testiyle araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgu, incelenen ülkelerden 41 ülke için SGP hipotezinin geçerli olduğudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Satınalma Gücü Paritesi, Reel Döviz Kuru, Panel Birim Kök Testleri, Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı, Yapısal Kırılma

TESTING THE ABSOLUTE PURCHASING POWER PARITY HYPOTHESIS: TURKEY AND FOREIGN TRADE PARTNERS APPLICATION

This study aims to investigate validity of “Absolute Purchasing PowerParity-Absolute PPP” for 42 foreign trade partner countries includingTurkey using monthly data 1994:M1-2016:M9. The PPP state that the priceof a fixed basket o f goods a nd services must be equal in all countries in thesame currency. In this paper the PPP hypothesis has been investigated byfirst generation panel unit root tests, second generation panel unit root testsand panel unit root test with structural breaks for Turkish and Turkishforeign trade partners. The finding is that the PPP hypothesis is valid for the41 countries.

Keywords:

Purchasing Power Parity, Real Exchange Rate, Panel Unit Root Tests, Cross Section Dependence, Structural Shift,

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