Türkiye'nin Dış Ticaret Dengesinde J-Eğrisi Etkisi

J-Eğrisi teorisine göre döviz kurlarında meydana gelen bir artış, kısa dönemde dış ticaret açığını arttırmakta sonrasında ise azaltmaktadır. Bu konu ile ilgili birçok çalışma yapılmış olmasına rağmen makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki asimetrik ilişkiler çoğunlukla göz ardı edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin dış ticaret dengesi simetrik ve asimetrik modeller ile analiz edilmiştir. Bu amaçla aylık ve üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı iki model oluşturulmuştur. Üçer aylık verilere dayalı analiz sonucuna göre değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ve J-eğrisi varlığına rastlanmamıştır. Ancak aylık veriler ile oluşturulan model sonuçlarına göre, kısa dönemde simetrik, uzun vadede ise asimetrik bir ilişki ve eşbütünleşme mevcuttur. Hem üç aylık verilerle hem de aylık verilerle yapılan tahminlerde ise J-Eğrisi etkisi gözlemlenmemiştir. Sonuç olarak sadece kısa dönemde geçerli olması beklenilen J-eğrisi için aylık verilerin kullanılması daha sağlıklı sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır

J-Curve Effect on Turkey's Foreign Trade Balance

According to J-Curve Theory, an increase in exchange rates causes a decrease in trade balance in the short run and then causes to increase in it. Although there are a lot of studies in this subject, the asymmetrical relationships among macroeconomic variables have been mostly ignored. In this study, Turkey's foreign trade balance was analyzed by the symmetric and asymmetric models. For this propose two models were constructed by using monthly and quarterly data. According to the results of the analyses based on quarterly data, there is neither cointegration among variables nor J-Curve phenomenon. But according to the results of the model which is based on monthly data, there is symmetric relationship in the short run and asymmetric relationship and cointegration in the long run. By the estimation of using both monthly and quarterly data there is no J-Curve effect. As a result, using monthly data in the estimation of shortrun phenomenon of J-Curve which is expected to exist only at short run gives more healthy results.

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