%100 Yenilenebilir Enerji Sistemi: 2050 Türkiye Örneği

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde (Türkiye de bunlardan biri) enerji talebi hızla artmakta ve fosil yakıtlar bu talebin karşılanmasında önemli rol oynamaktadır. Enerji fiyatları açısından, fosil yakıtlar tarafından üretilen enerjinin yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları ile rekabet etmesi pek olası görünmemektedir. Bu makalede, mevcut enerji sistemi için %100 yenilenebilir bir enerji sistemine dönüştürme olasılığının olup olmadığını araştırılmaktadır. % 100 yenilenebilir enerji sisteminin uygulanmasını araştırmak için EnergyPLAN adlı bir yazılım simülasyon aracı kullanılmıştır. EnergyPLAN, bir ülkenin enerji sistemini modelleyen ve sistem davranışını tahmin eden, enerji kullanımı ve emisyon eğilimlerini belirlemek için gelecekteki enerji sistemlerini araştıran bilgisayar tabanlı bir yazılımdır. Çalışma, 2050 için tasarlanan yenilenebilir senaryolar için gerçekleştirilmiştir. Vaka çalışmasında Türkiye örneğinde; günümüzdeki ısıtma, soğutma, sanayi, elektrik ve ulaştırma sektörleri için enerji santrallerini kullanan çeşitli enerji sistemlerini yansıtılmıştır. Beş analiz adımı uygulanmıştır: 1) mevcut Türk enerji sistemi referans modeli olarak alınmış, 2) fosil yakıtların yerine yenilenebilir enerji üretiminin artırılması ve yeni santrallerin kurulması hedeflenmiş, 3) bölgesel ısıtmanın sistemlerinin hayata geçirilmesi amaçlanmış, 4) nükleer enerji santralleri kaldırılmış ve son olarak, 5) elektrikli araçlar uygulanmıştır. Her bir enerji sistemi için karbon salınımına ve üretilen enerjiye göre karşılaştırılmıştır; böylece her birinden elde edilen sonuçlar "optimum" bir senaryo oluşturmak için kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, fosil yakıt santrallerini kısa veya uzun vadede arttırmadan; 2050 için öngörülen yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları fotovoltaik, rüzgar ve hidroelektrik enerjisine dayalı olarak üretilen güç gerçeğe dönüştürüldüğünde % 100 yenilenebilir enerji sistemine geçişin bugün umut verici olarak başlayabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

%100 yenilenebilir enerji, Enerji tasarrufu, Güneş enerjisi, Elektrikli araçlar, Rüzgar enerjisi

A 100% Renewable Energy System: The Case of Turkey In The Year 2050

Energy demand is increasing rapidly in developing countries (Turkey is one of them) and fossil fuels play an important role in meeting this demand. In terms of pricing, it seems unlikely that energy produced by fossil fuels can compete with renewable energy sources. This paper investigates whether the possibility of converting to a 100% renewable energy system for the current energy system. A simulation tool, EnergyPLAN, was used to investigate the implementation of 100% renewable energy system. EnergyPLAN is a computer-based tool that models a country's energy system and predicts system behavior and explores future energy systems to identify trends for energy use and emissions. The study has been performed for renewable scenarios designed for 2050. Turkey is used as a case study; however, it reflects various energy systems today which use power plants for the heating, cooling, industry, electricity, and transport sectors. There are five analysis steps which are: 1) a reference model of the current Turkish energy system was constructed, 2) increase and install new renewable energy generation to replace the remaining fossil fuels, 3) introduction of district heating, 4) removal of nuclear power plants, and finally, 5) the implementation of electric vehicles (EVs). These energy-systems were compared according to carbon emission and produced energy; so that the benefits from each could be used to create an ‘optimum’ scenario. The results are very promising since they indicate that the transition to a 100% renewable energy system can begin today, without increasing the fossil fuel power plants in the short- or long-term, if the generated power based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and hydropower forecasted for 2050 become a reality.

Keywords:

100% renewable energy, Energy savings Power system flexibility, Power system planning and operation, Solar energy, Transport, Wind energy,

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