Net Hata ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018)

Ekonomi ile ilgili yayınlarda net hatalar ve noksanlar konusunda yani net hata ve eksikliklerin kökenleri ve bunların ödemeler dengesi üzerindeki etkileri hakkında çok fazla analiz yapılmamıştır. Ayrıca, net hata ve noksanların ne derece kabul edilebilir olduğunu gösteren açıkça tanımlanmış bir cevap da bulunmamaktadır. Her ülkenin kendine has özellikleri vardır ve ödemeler dengesi uyumsuzluklarının varlık nedenlerini genellemek bu açıdan oldukça zordur. Bu çalışma, seçilen ülkelerin (Singapur, Malezya, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Uruguay, Filipinler) 1980-2018 yıllarında ödemeler dengesi hesaplarındaki ‘net hata ve noksan’ hesabının makroekonomik değişkenlerle (GSYİH, ithalat ve ihracat rakamları olarak kabul edilen ticaret hacmi) olan ilişkisini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmaya ait veriler, Dünya Bankası ve IMF uluslararası finans istatistiklerinden alınmıştır ve seçilen ülkelerin yıllık verileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, verilerin durağanlaştırılması sonrası, panel veri analizi tercih edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre ticaret hacmi net hata noksan üzerine negatif bir etki yaparken, GSYİH net hata noksanı pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Tutarsızlıkların nedenleri genellikle bilinmemekle birlikte, bazı durumlarda istatistiklerin gözden geçirilmesini gerektiren açıklamalar daha sonra ortaya çıkmaktadır. Zamanlama boşluğu, yetersiz kapsam veya metodolojik sorunlar dengesizliklere neden olabilir. Net hata ve noksan hesabının varlığının nedeni yani kaynağının bulunmasıyla, ödemeler dengesi istatistiklerinin kalitesi daha da iyileştirilebilir. Veri kaynakları iyi seçilmeli ve sorunlar yaşanmaması adına bu konuda yasalar ve cezai politikalar net bir şekilde belirtilmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Uluslararası ticaret, Ödemeler dengesi, Denkleştirici kalemler, Net hata ve noksan, Panel veri analizi

Net Errors and Omissions Account Overview: Analysis of Selected Countries (1980-2018)

Not many analyses have been conducted on net errors and omissions in publications on Economics which is relevant to the origins of net errors and omissions and their effects on the balance of payments. There is no clarified answer to indicate the degree to which errors and omissions are acceptable. Each country has its characteristics, and it is tough to generalize the reasons behind the balance of payment mismatches. This research intends to study the relationship between selected countries’ (India, Singapore, Malaysia, United States, Uruguay, Philippines) balance of payment accounts ‘net errors and Omissions’ account of macroeconomic variables (GDP, trade volume considered as import and export figures) in the years of 1980-2018. The data for this study were collected from the World Bank and IMF international financial statistics and the selected countries’ annual data. In the study, panel data analysis was preferred after stasis analysis of the data. According to the results obtained, while trade volüme harms net errors and omissions, the increases in GDP are being affected positively in that direction. The inconsistencies are often unknown, although in some cases, explanations that require a review of statistics emerge later. Timing gaps, insufficient coverage, or methodological issues can cause imbalances. By finding the reason for the existence of the net error and omissions account, that is, its source, the quality of the balance of payments statistics can be further improved. Data sources should be chosen well, and laws and penal policies should be clearly stated to avoid problems.

Keywords:

International trade, Balance of payment, Balancing item, Net errors and omissions, Panel data analysis,

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