TEKNOLOJİNİN GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERE DİFÜZYONU: BİR KARŞILAŞTIRMALI PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Bu çalışma, patent başvuruları, ithalat ve beşerî sermayenin yanında absorbe edilebilir doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) ve makroekonomik performans verilerini de dikkate alarak seçilmiş 14 gelişmekte olan ülke için 1980-2017 döneminde teknoloji difüzyonunu incelemektedir. Bu amaç bağlamında makroekonomik performansı endekslemeye yönelik farklı bir yaklaşım önerilmiş ve dengeli bir panel veri seti üzerinde iki ayrı ekonometrik yaklaşım ile çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular şunlardır: (i) önerilen makroekonomik performans indeksi karma ortalama grup ve dinamik ortak korelasyonlu etkiler tahminlemeleri kapsamında iyi performans sergilemiş ve makroekonomik görünümün gelişen ülkeler için önemini ortaya koymuştur, (ii) beşerî sermayenin toplam faktör verimliliği üzerindeki pozitif etkisi ortak faktörlerin analize dahil edilmesiyle negatife dönmektedir. Bunun anlamı, uluslararası teknoloji yayılımı etkilerinin gelişmekte olan ülkeler için anahtar verimlilik kaynaklarından biri olduğudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

teknoloji difüzyonu, gelişmekte olan ülkeler, verimlilik, karma ortalama grup, dinamik ortak korelasyonlu etkiler

TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION TOWARDS EMERGING MARKETS: A COMPARATIVE PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

This study aims to reveal how absorbable foreign direct investment (FDI) and macroeconomic performance affect technology diffusion along with patent applications, imports and human capital in 14 selected emerging markets (EMs) between 1980-2017. To do this, a new approach for indexing macroeconomic performance is suggested and a strongly balanced panel was investigated with two different econometric approaches. Key findings are as follows: (i) suggested macroeconomic performance index performs well under pooled mean group and dynamic common correlated effects estimations and proves the importance of macroeconomic outlook for developing countries, (ii) the positive effect of human capital on total factor productivity turns to negative when common factors are included in the estimation, meaning that international technology spillovers are a key source of productivity increases for developing countries.

Keywords:

Technology diffusion, emerging markets, productivity, pooled mean group, dynamic common correlated effects,

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