Türkiye'de Yurtiçi Özel Tasarruf Davranışının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri (2004-2018)

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de 2004-2018 dönemi için yurtiçi özeltasarruf davranışının makroekonomik belirleyicilerini incelemeyi amaçlamıştır. Bu amaçla çalışmada ekonometrik yöntemolarak Johansen eşbütünleşme testi, tam modifiye edilmiş sıradan en küçük kareler tahmin yöntemleri ile birlikte vektör hatadüzeltme modeli tahmininden hareketle Granger Nedenselliktest yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Tam modifiye edilmiş sıradan enküçük kareler tahmin sonuçları reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla(GSYİH), özel tüketim harcamaları, enflasyon oranı ve reel faizoranının yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışının makroekonomik belirleyicileri olduğunu göstermiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye'de reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH), enflasyon oranı vereel faiz oranı yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışını pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermiş, özel tüketim harcamaları ise negatif etkilemektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar, hem Klasik İktisadın tasarruf kuramını hem Keynesyen İktisadın tasarruf kuramını desteklemektedir.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Domestic Private Savings Behavior in Turkey (2004-2018)

This study aimed to examine macroeconomic determinants of domestic private saving behavior in Turkey for the period 2004-2018. For this purpose as the econometric method, Johansen cointegration test and full modified ordinary least squares estimation methods along with the vector error correction model estimation Granger Causality test methods were used. Both the full modified ordinary least squares estimation results showed that the real gross domestic product (GDP), private consumption expenditures, inflation rate and real interest rate are macroeconomic determinants of domestic private saving behavior. The findings showed that the real gross domestic product (GSYİH), inflation rate and real interest rate positively affect domestic private saving behavior. Private consumption expenditures affect negatively. These results support both savings of the theory of classical economics and the theory of savings of Keynesian economics in Turkey.

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