Bir Olasılıktan Ötekine Köprü

Bu çalışmada öznel ve nesnel olasılıklar arasındaki işbirliği koşulları incelenmektedir. Burada işbirliği sözcüğü ile anlatılmak istenen, olasılıklardan biri belli iken öbürünü de belli etmektir. Olasılık kuramının ilk zamanlarında böyle bir sorun yoktur; çünkü o zamanlarda tek olasılık vardır, o aynı anda hem öznel hem de nesnel olasılıktır, büyük sayılar yasası onlardan birinin öbürüne eşit olmasını garanti etmektedir, bu da demektir ki olasılıklardan biri belli iken öbürü de bellidir. O günlerdeki işbirliğine mutlak işbirliği denebilir. Bugün yalnızca koşullu işbirliği kabul edilebilir niteliktedir. Bu çalışma söz konusu koşullu işbirliğini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Olasılık, Öznel Olasılık, Nesnel Olasılık, İşbirliği

Bridge from One Probability to Another

This study examines the conditions of cooperation between subjective and objective possibilities. Here, the intended goal to express the word of collaboration is to make one probability known when the other is known. There was no such problem in the early days of probability theory; because there is only one possibility at that time, it is both subjective and objective at the same time, the law of large numbers guarantees that one of them is equal to the other, which means that while one of the probabilities is certain, the other is obvious too. Cooperation in those days can be called absolute cooperation. Today, only conditional cooperation is acceptable. This study aims to examine this conditional cooperation.

Keywords:

Probability, Subjective Probability, Objective Probability, Cooperation,

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