Geçmişe Dönüş: Batı Kriz Yönetiminden Nükleer Kuvvetler Dâhil Geniş Spektrumlu Caydırıcılığa mı Dönüyor?

Soğuk Savaş yıllarında Batı, Sovyetler Birliği ve Varşova Paktı’nı caydırmaya ve kontrol altına almaya çalışmıştır. Bu caydırıcılık hem konvansiyonel hem de nükleer kuvvetlere dayanıyordu. Her iki taraf da karşılıklı imha kabiliyetine ulaştıktan sonra nükleer denge onları caydırdı. Soğuk Savaş sona erdiğinde, odak noktası caydırıcılık ve çevrelemeden kriz yönetimine geçti, çünkü uluslararası güvenlik ortamına iç çatışmalar, uluslararası terörizm, küresel suç ve mülteci krizleri gibi başarısız devletlerle ilgili sorunlar hâkim olmaya başlamıştı. Bu durum Doğu ve Batı Bloğu arasında konvansiyonel ve nükleer savaş riskinin azalmasına ve böylece tarafların savunma harcamalarında kesintiler yapmalarına neden oldu. Ancak Rusya’nın Kırım’ı ilhak etmesi ve ardında da Ukrayna’yı işgal etmesiyle bu güvenlik algısı değişti. Batı’nın Rusya’yı caydırmak için Doğu Avrupa’da konvansiyonel kuvvetler konuşlandırmak gibi son önlemleri, bir anlamda Soğuk Savaş dönemi zihniyetine benzemektedir. Bu kapsamda bu yazıda uluslararası güvenlik ortamındaki son gelişmeler Soğuk Savaş dönemi ile karşılaştırılarak incelenmiştir. Bu dönemde devletlerin savunma bütçelerini artırdıkları, kendi güvenliklerini sağlamak ve potansiyel saldırganları caydırmak için sert önlemler aldıkları da görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Caydırıcılık, Soğuk Savaş, Uluslararası Güvenlik, Kriz Yönetimi, Yüksek Yoğunluklu Çatışma

Back to the Past: Is the West Moving from Crisis Management to Full-Spectrum Deterrence Including Nuclear Force?

During the Cold War, the West tried to deter and contain the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. This deterrence was based on both conventional and nuclear forces and various concepts and doctrines. After both sides achieved an assured destruction capability, deterrence was achieved by nuclear balance. Once the Cold War ended, the focus shifted from deterrence and containment to crisis management as the international security environment became dominated by internal conflicts, international terrorism, global crime, and problems related to failed states like refugee crises. This resulted in defence cuts as neither side expected a significant conventional and nuclear war. However, this security perception has changed after Russia annexed Crimea and then invaded Ukraine. Recent Western measures to deter Russia, such as deploying conventional forces to Eastern Europe, resemble the Cold War mentality. Accordingly, this paper examines recent developments in the international security environment compared to the Cold War era. It finds that states and alliances have increased their defence budgets and implemented harsh measures to ensure their security and deter potential aggressors.

Keywords:

Deterrence, Cold war, International Security, Crisis management, High Intensity Conflict,

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ISSN: 1305-4740
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2005
Yayıncı: Millî Savunma Üniversitesi Atatürk Stratejik Araştırmalar ve Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü