Gri Tahmin Modelleri ile Toplam Enerji Talep Tahmini: Türkiye Örneği

Gelişen ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin, sürdürülebilir enerji politikaları belirleyebilmesinde enerji talep tahminlerine ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Gri tahmin modelleri, önceden herhangi bir ön bilgiye ihtiyaç duymadan sınırlı veri ile başarılı tahminler gerçekleştirebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, son dönemde önemli ekonomik ve sosyal gelişme gösteren Türkiye’nin toplam enerji talebi için Gri tahmin modelleri dikkate alınmıştır. Gri tahmin; zaman serisi ve sebep-sonuç ilişkisine dayalı çeşitli tahmin modellerini içermektedir. Çalışma kapsamında; zaman serisi modellerinden GM(1,1) ve Gri Verhulst ile sebep-sonuç ilişkisine dayalı GM(0,N) ve GM (1,N) modelleri olmak üzere dört farklı gri tahmin modeli ele alınmıştır. İki çeşit tahmin yapısının kullanılmasındaki amaç; son dönemdeki trendin zaman serisi ile yakalanması ve enerji talebindeki değişimin sebep-sonuç ilişkisiyle elde edilmesi sağlanarak güvenilir ve güçlü tahminlere ulaşmaktır. GM (1,1) ve Gri Verhulst modelleri geçmiş toplam enerji tüketim verileri ile kurulmuştur. GM (0,N) ve GM (1,N) modellerinde ise; GSYH, nüfus, ithalat, ihracat ve bina yüzölçümü bağımsız değişkenleri kullanılarak GM (0,6) ve GM (1,6) modelleri oluşturulmuştur. Kurulan tüm modeller performans ölçütlerine göre kıyaslanmış, başarılı tahmin gerçekleştiren üstün modellerin GM (1,1) ve GM (1,6) olduğu belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak; GM (1,1) ile zaman serisi ve GM (1,6) ile yüksek ve düşük senaryo bazlı olmak üzere Türkiye toplam enerji talebi 2025 yılına kadar tahmin edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Gri Tahmin Modelleri, Tahmin, Toplam Enerji Talebi, Türkiye

Forecasting Total Energy Demand with Grey Prediction Models: The Case of Turkey

Energy demand forecasts are needed for developing and emerging countries to be able to determine sustainable energy policies. Grey prediction models can make successful predictions with limited data without the need for any prior information. In this study, Grey prediction models are considered for the total energy demand of Turkey that shows significant economic and social development in recent years. Grey prediction includes forecasting models based on time series and cause-effect relationships. Four different grey prediction models including GM (1,1) and Grey Verhulst from the time series models, and GM (0,N) and GM (1,N) based on the cause-effect relationships were discussed. The purpose of using two types of forecasting structures is to achieve reliable and strong forecasts by capturing the recent trend with the time series and obtaining the change in energy demand by cause-effect relationship. GM (1,1) and Grey Verhulst model has been established with past total energy consumption data. By using independent variables of GDP, population, import, export and building surface area for GM (0, N) and GM (1, N) models, GM (0,6) and GM (1,6) models were formed. All applied models have been compared according to performance criteria, GM (1,1) and GM (1,6) have been designated to be superior models that performed successful predictions. As a result; Turkey’s total energy demand has been forecasted up to 2025 with GM (1,1) based on time series and GM (1,6) including high and low scenarios.

Keywords:

Grey Prediction Models, Forecasting, Total Energy Demand, Turkey,

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