Risk Analiz Yöntemlerinin Psikoloji Temelli Değerlendirilmesi: Gençler Arasında Şiddet İçeren Radikalleşme Risk Analiz Örneği
Kuramsal ve yöntemsel olarak iyi yapılandırılmış adli risk analizleri uygulayıcılara sistematik ve deliledayalı öngörüler sunma işlevini yerine getirebilirler. Diğer taraftan etkili bir şekilde yapılandırılmamışrisk analiz uygulamaları ise yüksek riskli hükümlülerin erken tahliye edilmeleri veya düşük riskgrubunda bulunan gençlerin özgürlüklerine gereksiz sınırlamalar getirilmesi gibi ciddi sorunlaraneden olabilmektedir. Dolayısıyla risk analiz araçlarının kanıt temelli yöntemlerle tasarlanmasıolası risklerin etkin bir şekilde yönetilebilmesi için büyük önem taşımaktadır. Literatürde yapılanaraştırmalara göre risk analizleri genel olarak araçsız uzman görüşleri, aktüeryal risk analizleri veyapılandırılmış uzman risk muhakemelerini içeren yöntemler kullanılarak yapılandırılmaktadır. Buüç yöntem arasında birçok farklılıklar bulunmakla birlikte en önemli ayrışma nesnellik ve öznellikboyutundadır. Araçsız uzman görüşleri tam anlamıyla öznel profesyonel tecrübe ve değerlendirilenkişi ile ilgili bilgilere dayanan öngörüleri içermektedir. Kontrol listelerindeki risk faktörlerinindeğerlendirildiği aktüeryal risk analizleri uygulayıcıların kişisel görüşlerine yer vermeyen nesnelöngörüleri kapsamaktadır. Diğer taraftan, yapılandırılmış uzman muhakemelerinde ise riskgöstergeleri uygulayıcılara sistematik olarak riskleri belirleme ve yorumlamalarında yol göstermeişlevini yerine getirmektedir. Bu çalışmada, farklı risk analiz yöntemlerinin güçlü ve zayıf yönlerikarşılaştırılacak olup; sonrasında ise gençler arasında şiddet içeren radikalleşme hususuna yerverilerek, risk analizi bağlamında tartışılmaktadır. Gençler arasındaki şiddet içeren radikalleşmeriskinin ayrışık ve belirsiz yapılı riskleri içermesi nedeniyle aktüeryal veya araçsız uzman görüşüyöntemlerine karşın yapılandırılmış uzman muhakemelerinin daha sistematik ve delile dayalıöngörüler sunabileceği iddia edilebilir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
Gençler Arasında Şiddet İçeren Radikalleşme Riski, Risk Analiz Yöntemleri, Yapılandırılmış Uzman Risk Analizleri
The Examination of Risk Analysis Methods Based on Psychology: The Case of Violent Radicalization Risk Among Youth
Conceptually and methodologically well-structured forensic risk analysis can provide practitionerswith systematic and evidence-based predictions. On the other hand, poorly designed risk assessmentsmight result in serious consequences, such as the premature release of high risk offenders fromcustody or, conversely, having low-risk juvenile offenders suffering unnecessary restrictions on theirfreedoms as a result of ineffective risk assessment tools. Thus, it is imperative that risk assessmentsbe evidence-based in order to ensure the effective management of risks. In the literature, riskassessments are designed based on the following three methods: unaided professional judgments,actuarial approach, and structured professional judgments. Though there are many differences in thesemethods, the most important pertains to objectivity and subjectivity. Unaided professional judgmentsinvolve risk predictions based solely on the subjective professional experiences and knowledge ofthe individual being assessed. Actuarial tools use a highly prescriptive and objective method to riskassessment based on checklists of risk indicators without taking into account practitioners’ expertopinions. In structured professional judgments, on the other hand, the identified evidence-based riskpredictors serve to guide the assessor via a process of systematically identifying and interpreting risks.In this paper, the strengths and limitations of different risk assessment methods are discussed, afterwhich a conceptually based discussion is presented on risk assessments as they pertain to juvenileviolent radicalization risk. Compared to unaided professional judgments or actuarial approaches,structured professional judgments might constitute a more effective method in assessing the risk ofjuvenile violent radicalization due to the heterogeneous nature of the threat.
Keywords:
Juvenile Violent Radicalization Risk Assessment Methods, Structured Professional Judgments, Structured Professional Judgments,
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- ISSN: 2147-8473
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2012
- Yayıncı: T.C. Gençlik ve Spor Bakanlığı Eğitim, Kültür ve Araştırma genel Müdürlüğü