İhracat Ürün Çeşitlendirmesi İhracat Performansını Etkilemekte Midir: Türkiye Örneği

Klasik ticaret teorileri, ülkelerin büyüyebilmeleri için karşılaştırmalı üstünlüğe sahip oldukları mallarda uzmanlaşmaları ve bu malları ihraç etmeleri gerektiğini ileri sürmektedir. Ancak, klasik ticaret teorilerinin bu argümanı kısmen belirsizlik olmadığı varsayımına dayanmaktadır. Ayrıca, dar bir ürün yelpazesinde uzmanlaşmak ülkeleri dış şoklara karşı korumasız hale getirebilmektedir. Bu nedenlerden ötürü bazı araştırmacılar, belirsizlik ve dış şokların yarattığı risklerden kaçınılabilmesi için çeşitlendirmeyi önermektedirler. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmanın temel amacı, pazara yönelik mal çeşitlendirmesinin Türkiye’nin 136 partner ülkeye yapmış olduğu ihracat üzerindeki etkisini 2000-2017 dönemi için araştırmaktır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alan ikinci nesil analizlerle elde edilen bulgular şöyle sıralanabilir: i) Testler model bazında yatay kesit bağımlığın olduğunu ve eğim katsayılarının heterojen olduğunu göstermektedir; ii) Türkiye'nin ihraç ettiği malların çeşitliliğindeki ve partner ülkelerin reel gelirindeki artışlar, Türkiye'nin reel ihracatını arttırmaktadır; ve iii) İkili reel döviz kurundaki artışlar Türkiye’nin reel ihracatını olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu nedenle, politika yapıcılar çeşitlendirmeyi teşvik eden politikalar tasarlamalıdır. Buna ek olarak, Türkiye'nin para otoritesi ikili reel döviz kurunda istikrar sağlamalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yoğun marj, yaygın marj, ihracat ürün çeşitlendirmesi

Does Export Product Diversification Effect Export Performance: The Case of Turkey

Classical trade theories suggest that in order to economic growth countries must specialize in products which they have a comparative advantage and, export them. However, this suggestion of classical trade theories is partly based on the assumption that there is no uncertainty. Also, specializing in a narrow product range can render countries vulnerable to external shocks. For these reasons, some researchers recommend diversification to avoid the risks resulting from uncertainty and external shocks. From this point of view, this study mainly aims to investigate the effects of product diversification for the market on Turkey's real exports to 136 partner countries for the period from 2000 to 2017. The findings obtained from the second-generation econometric analyses that take into account cross-sectional dependence can be listed as follows: i) Tests show that cross-section dependence exists in the model, and slope coefficients are heterogeneous; ii) An increase in both diversification in Turkey's exports of goods and the real income of Turkey's trade partner countries increase the real export of Turkey, and iii) The appreciation of the bilateral real exchange rate has a negative impact on Turkey's real exports. Therefore, policymakers should design policies that encourage diversification. Besides, the monetary authority of Turkey should provide stabilization in the bilateral real exchange rate.

Keywords:

Intensive margin, extensive margin, export product diversification,

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