Kesirli üniversal kriging meta-modeli

Bu çalışmada, benzetim modeli ile veri üretmenin maliyetli olabileceği karmaşık yapıdaki problemler için benzetim modelinin yerine kullanılabilecek Kriging tabanlı bir meta-model önerilmektedir. Üniversal Kriging (ÜK) meta-modelinin drift fonksiyonu yapısının bilinmediği durumlar için önerilen bu yeni model yapısında, ÜK meta-modelinde drift fonksiyonu olarak kullanılan birinci ve ikinci dereceden regresyon modelleri yerine, kesirli değerler de alabilen değişkenlerin bir güç fonksiyonu kullanılmıştır. Kesirli Üniversal Kriging (KÜK) meta-modeli olarak adlandırılan bu meta modelin kestirim gücü deneysel analizlerle incelenmiştir. Geçerleme analizleri Ortalama Hata Kare (OHK) ve Enbüyük hata Kare (EHK) başarım ölçütlerine göre KÜK meta-modellerinin üstün kestirim gücüne sahip olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Böylece, benzetim modelinin girdi-çıktı ilişkisinin karesel polinomial durumdan farklı ve daha yüksek dereceden etkilerini de içeren bir güç fonksiyonu ile ifade edilebilir olması durumunda, KÜK meta-modelleri yeni bir meta-model yaklaşımı olarak bu çalışmada önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Meta-model, Ordinary Kriging, Üniversal Kriging, Kesirli Üniversal Kriging, Latin hiperküp tasarım

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