Ahmet Sermet ANAGÜN, Abdullah Korkut ÜSTÜN

İSTANBUL'UN İLÇELERİNİN AFET YÖNETİMİ AÇISINDAN ÖNEM AĞIRLIKLARININ ANALİTİK HİYERARŞİ SÜRECİ KULLANILARAK BELİRLENMESİ

İstanbul tarih boyunca birçok deprem yaşamıştır ve önümüzdeki 30 yıl içerisinde de yüzde 65 ihtimalle yıkıcı bir deprem yaşaması beklenen bir şehirdir. Yaklaşan bu afet riski, afet yönetim sisteminde yapılacak önemli değişiklikler ile azaltılabilir. Bu çalışmada, sosyo-ekonomik kriterler, bina yapısı kriterleri, coğrafi ve jeolojik özellikler kriterleri ve altyapı kriterleri ile bu kriterlerin alt kriterleri Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHS) yöntemi kullanılarak İstanbul'un ilçeleri incelenmiş ve her bir kriter grubu için ve bütünsel olarak risk haritaları oluşturmuştur. Yapılan bu çalışma ile karar vericiler için iyileştirme yapılacak alanların tespiti konusunda önemli ipuçları elde edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçları afet yönetimi faaliyetleri konusundaki uygulayıcılar içinde bir rehber olarak kullanılabilir.

DETERMINATION OF IMPORTANCE WEIGHTS OF ISTANBUL'S DISTRICTS USING ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Istanbul is an earthquake prone city and has experienced many earthquakes throughout history. Also, Istanbul is threatened by a 65 % probability of a devastating earthquake in the next 30 years. In order to reduce the disaster risk in Istanbul, structure of disaster management must be strengthened. In this study, importance weights of districts of Istanbul are determined and risk maps are generated by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) including criteria of socio-economic, building, structure, geographical and geological features, and infrastructure and subcriteria of these criteria. We consider that results of this study can provide a decision support framework for policy makers to reflect critically on possible risk mitigation plans. The results would be used as guidance for practitioners.

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