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Türkiye Süper Lig Takımlarının Ev Sahibi Avantajı ve Deplasman Dezavantajının İstatistiksel Modellenmesi

Tüm spor dalları için ev sahibi olmanın (HA) veya deplasmanda (AD) olmanın sonucu etkileyen en önemli faktörlerden olduğu bir gerçektir. HA ile ilgili birçok çalışma olmasına rağmen, bu çalışmaların birçoğu ligler özelinde yapılmış olup, takım seviyesinde HA inceleyen çalışma sayısı oldukça sınırlıdır. Bu çalışmada, Poisson regresyon kullanılarak Türkiye Süper Ligi’nde 2000/2001 ile 2021/2022 sezonları arasında en az 3 sezon yer alan takımların evlerinde ve deplasmanda oynadıkları maçlarda attıkları ve yedikleri gol sayıları üzerinden, takım özelinde HA ve AD değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, analize dahil edilen 34 takımın 32 tanesinin istatistiksel olarak %56.2 ile %81.8 arasında değişen ev sahibi avantajına sahip olduğu bulunmuştur. AD açısından değerlendirildiğinde ise, AD değerlerinin %46.7 ile %65.4 arasında değişmekte olduğu ve sadece 9 takımın deplasman dezavantajına sahip olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, çalışma sonuçları ligde sıralamayı belirleyen esas faktörün takımların deplasman dezavantajı performansı olduğunu göstermiştir. Takımların farklı HA ve AD değerlerine sahip olmasının sebebi olarak seyirci avantajı, içeride ve dışarıda uygulanan farklı oyun taktikleri gibi faktörler gösterilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Futbol, Ev sahibi avantajı, Deplasman dezavantajı, Türkiye Süper Ligi, Genelleştirilmiş tahmin modeli, Poisson regresyon

Statistical Modelling of Home Advantage and Away Disadvantage of Turkish Super League Teams

It is a fact that for all sports branches, being home or away is one of the most critical factors influencing the outcome of the game. Although there are many studies on Home Advantage (HA), most of these studies have been made specifically for leagues as a whole, and the number of studies examining HA at the team level is quite limited. In this study, the HA and away disadvantage (AD) values were calculated, using Poisson regression, for each team played at least 3 seasons in the Turkish Super League between 2000/2001 and 2021/2022 seasons, based on the goals they scored and conceded in their home and away matches. According to the results of the study, 32 of the 34 teams included in the analysis were found to have a home advantage that statistically varied between 56.2% and 81.8%. Evaluations using AD determined that AD values ranged between 46.7% and 65.4% and only 9 teams did not have an away disadvantage in the league. However, the results of the study indicated that the main factor determining the ranking in the league is the away disadvantage of the teams. The reason why the teams have different HA and AD values can be shown as the effect of the spectators, and different game tactics applied in home and away matches.

Keywords:

Football, Home advantage, Away disadvantage, Turkish Super League, Generalized estimated Model, Poisson regression,

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