Vekâlet Savaşında Yanlış Hesap: Suriye İç Savaşında Amerika Birleşik Devletleri ve Rusya’ya Neoklasik Realist Perspektiften Bakış

Bu makale dünyadaki en büyük askeri güç olan Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Suriye İç Savaşında nasıl masanın dışına itildiğini, dünyanın gerileyen gücü Rusya’nın ise tam ters şekilde nasıl tek aktör haline geldiği sorusunu çözmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Makale bu soruya neoklasik realist bakış açısıyla cevap verecektir. Buna göre devletler her zaman rasyonel davranmazlar. Yanlış hesap sonucu başarısız olabilirler. Bu bakımdan ABD de Suriye’deki iç savaşı ve politikayı yanlış hesaplamıştır. Buna karşılık, Rusya stratejik kültürüne uygun olarak sahada ve diplomaside hakim hale gelmiştir. Bağımsız değişken olan sistemik uyarıcılar her iki ülkeyi de ittifaklara zorlamıştır. Ara değişken olan iç aktörler ise her iki ülkenin farklı istikametlerde davranamsını sağlamıştır. ABD siyasi eliti bölünmüş bir yapıda olduğu için yanlış hesap yapılmış, Rus eliti ise daha birlik olması dolayısıyla etkili sonuçlar elde etmiştir.

Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective

This article aims to puzzle why the leading military power of the world, namely the United States, was pushed back from the negotiating table in the Syrian Civil War, and conversely, how and why the world’s declining power, namely Russia, became the sole actor in that conflict. The article will try to answer this question from the neoclassical realist perspective. In this perspective, states do not always act rationally. Instead, they can fail because of miscalculations. The United States, in this respect, miscalculated on the Syrian Civil War as well as its domestic politics. In contrast, Russia behaved in accordance with its strategic culture, which resulted in its dominance both in the field and in diplomacy. The systemic stimulus, which is the independent variable, forces both countries to form alliances in the civil war. The domestic actors of both countries, which are the intervening variables, diversified the systemic stimuli in opposite directions. While the US political elite was misguided due to the divided structure, the Russian elite was more unified, which resulted in outcomes in favor of the latter.

Kaynakça

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Kaynak Göster

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { gav839015, journal = {Gazi Akademik Bakış}, issn = {1307-9778}, eissn = {1309-5137}, address = {}, publisher = {Hale ŞIVGIN}, year = {2020}, volume = {14}, pages = {243 - 260}, doi = {}, title = {Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective}, key = {cite}, author = {Şen, Osman and Şahin, Mehmet} }
APA Şen, O , Şahin, M . (2020). Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective . Gazi Akademik Bakış , 14 (27) , 243-260 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/gav/issue/57836/839015
MLA Şen, O , Şahin, M . "Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective" . Gazi Akademik Bakış 14 (2020 ): 243-260 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/gav/issue/57836/839015>
Chicago Şen, O , Şahin, M . "Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective". Gazi Akademik Bakış 14 (2020 ): 243-260
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective AU - Osman Şen , Mehmet Şahin Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - DO - T2 - Gazi Akademik Bakış JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 243 EP - 260 VL - 14 IS - 27 SN - 1307-9778-1309-5137 M3 - UR - Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Gazi Akademik Bakış Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective %A Osman Şen , Mehmet Şahin %T Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective %D 2020 %J Gazi Akademik Bakış %P 1307-9778-1309-5137 %V 14 %N 27 %R %U
ISNAD Şen, Osman , Şahin, Mehmet . "Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective". Gazi Akademik Bakış 14 / 27 (Aralık 2020): 243-260 .
AMA Şen O , Şahin M . Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective. Gazi Akademik Bakış. 2020; 14(27): 243-260.
Vancouver Şen O , Şahin M . Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective. Gazi Akademik Bakış. 2020; 14(27): 243-260.
IEEE O. Şen ve M. Şahin , "Miscalculation in Proxy War: The United States and Russia in Syrian Civil War from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective", Gazi Akademik Bakış, c. 14, sayı. 27, ss. 243-260, Ara. 2020