Türkiye Konut Piyasasnda Balon Var m? İstatistiki Bölge Birimleri Üzerine Bir Analiz

Bu çalúmann amac, Türkiye konut fiyatlarndaki olas spekülatif balonlarn tespit edilmesi ve bu balonlarn oluúma zamannn belirlenmesidir. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas’ndan elde edilen çeúitli konut sektörü endeksleri ve konut birim fiyatlar kullanlarak Ocak 2010 – Nisan 2017 döneminde konut sektöründe spekülatif balonlarn varl÷ araútrlmútr. Türkiye’nin geneli, üç büyük il ve di÷er birçok bölge için spekülatif balonlarn varl÷na iliúkin güçlü kantlar elde edilmiútir. Ayrca, spekülatif balonlarn tespit edildi÷i baz bölgeler için konut sektörü fiyatlamalarnda aúrlklarn son dönemlerde de devam etti÷i; ancak baz bölgelerde tamamen söndü÷üne iúaret eden istatistiki kantlar elde edilmiútir. Konut sektöründe spekülatif balonlarn görüldü÷ü yerlerin genellikle Anadolu’nun bats ve ky úeridi bölgeleri oldu÷u söylenebilir.

Is There a Bubble in the Real Estate Market of Turkey? An Analysis on the Statistical Territorial Units

This study aims to detect possible speculative bubbles in Turkey’s housing prices and to determine when these bubbles occur. Using various housing sector indices and housing unit prices obtained from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, we investigated the existence of speculative bubbles in the housing sector, covering January 2010 to April 2017. We obtain robust evidence about the existence of speculative bubbles for Turkey in general, three large provinces and many other regions. Additionally, for some regions where speculative bubbles have been identified, explosive behavior in the housing sector pricing have continued recently; but it has been completely extinguished in some other regions. In the housing sector, speculative bubbles generally occurred in the western and coastal regions of Anatolia.

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