Kamu Açıkları, İç Borç ve Faiz Oranı İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışma, Türkiyede kamu açıkları, iç borç vefaiz oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi nedensellik ve çokdeğişkenli VAR modeli kullanarak 1980-2012dönemi için yıllık verilerle incelemektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar, faiz oranın enflasyonun Grangernedeni olduğunu ve ayrıca iç borçlardan enflasyona doğru bir Granger nedensellik ilişkisi göstermektedir. Ek olarak, bir diğer tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi ise enflasyondan kamu açıklarınadoğrudur. Sonuçta incelenen dönemde Türkiyede faiz oranları kamu açıklarını enflasyonaracığı ile etkilemektedir.

Relationship Among Public Deficits Domestic Debt and Interest Rate: Turkey Case

This study, investigates relationship amongpublic deficits, public domestic debt and interestrate in Turkey by causality and multivariablevector autoregression (VAR) analysis for theperiod 1980-2012 by using annual series. Theempirical results suggest that interest rate isGranger cause of inflation and also there is aGranger causality running from domestic debt toinflation. Additionally an other uni-directionalcausality runs from inflation to public debt. As aresult in the period studied for Turkey its concluded that interest rates effect public deficits inrelation with inflation.

PDF

___

Aisen, A., D. Hauner (2008), Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: a Fresh Perspec- ve, IMF Working Paper 08/42.
Aksu, H., Ö. S. Emsen, S. Başar (2001), Türkiyede Bütçe Açıkları ile Nominal ve Reel Faiz Oranları İlişkileri: 1985-2000, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1-2): 43-53.
Barro, R. J. (1974), Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?, Journal of Political Economy, 82 (6),10951117.
Buchanan, J. M., M. R. Flowers; (1987), The Public Finances An Introductory Text- book, Sixth Edition, Irwin, Illinois.
Cebula, R. J.(2000), Impact of Budget Deficits on Ex Post Real Long Term Interest Rates, Applied Economic Letters, 7: 177-179.
Cheng, B. J.(1998), The Causality Between Budget Deficit and Interest Rates in Japan: An Application of Time Series Analysis, Applied Economic Letters, 5, 419- 422.
Dornbush, R., S. Fischer; (1994), Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition, International Edition, McGraw Hill. Literatür Yayıncılık, Turkey.
Elmendorf, D.W.(1996), The Effects of Deficit Reduction Laws on Real Interest Rates, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 1996-44, Federal Reserve Board.
Enders, W.(2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, New York: John Wiley and Sons INC.
Engen, E., R.G. Hubbard (2004), Federal Government Debts and Interest Rates, NBER Working Paper 10681.
Evans, P.(1987), Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States, Journal of Political Economy,95(11): 32-58.
Feldstein, M. S. (1986), Budget Deficits, Tax Rules, and Real Interest Rates, NBER Working Paper, 1970. Cambridge.
Gale, W. G., P. R., Orszag (2002), The Economic Effects of Long-Term Fiscal Disci- pline. Discussion Paper No.8, Tax Policy Center.
Gujarati, D.N. (2004), Temel Ekonometri, New York: McGraw-Hill.
Hoelsher, G.P.(1983),Federal Borrowing and Short Term Interest Rates, South- ern Economic Journal, 15:319-333.
Kameda, K.(2008), Budget Deficits, Government Dept and Interest Rates in Japan: An Analysis Using Published Budgetary Forecasts, Kwansei Gakuin University, Working Paper Series,39:1-31.
Kiani, K. M. (2009), Federal Budget Deficits and Long Term Interest Rates in USA, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 49(1): 74-84.
Laubach, T. (2003), New Evidence on The Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt, Board of Governors of The Federal Reserve System. Finance and Eco- nomics Discussion Series 2003-12. May.
Lipsey, R. G., P. N. Courant, C.T.S. Ragan,(1998), Economics, Addison-Wesley Publisling.
MacKinnon, J.(1996), Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointe- gration Tests, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11:601-618.
Mello, M., R. Scherre (2008), Real Interest Rates, Budget Deficit and Public Debt in Emerging Markets, LAMES Meeting in Rio de Janerio 2008,
Motley, B. (1983), Real Interest Rates, Income Taxes and Anticipated Inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 1983: 31-45.
Nelson, C.R.,Plosser, C.I.(1982), Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series Some Evidence and Implications, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10: 139162.
Özatay, F., G. Sak,(1996), 1980 Sonrasında Kaynakların Kamu ve Özel Sektör Arasında Paylaşımı ve Sonuçları, Tüsiad Yayınları.
Özgen, F.B. ve Güloğlu, B.(2004), Türkiyede İç Borçların İktisadi Etkilerinin VAR Tekniği ile Analizi, METU Studies in Development, 31(Haziran): 93-114.
Peker, O., Y. Acar (2010), Türkiyede Konsolide Bütçe Açıklarıyla- İç Borçlanma Faiz Oranları Arasındaki İlişki: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz, C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 11(1), 193-206.
Phillips, P.,Perron, P.(1988), Testing for Unit Root in the Time Series Regression, Biometrika,75: 336340.
Pınar, A. (2006), Maliye Politikası-Teori Uygulama, 2. Baskı, Naturel Yayınları, Ankara.
Plosser, C. (1982), Government Financing Decisions and Asset Returns,Journal of Monetary Economics, 9 (3): 325-52.
Reinhart, C.M., , K.S. Rogoff, (2010), This Time Is Different, Priceton University Press.
Sağlam M. ve E. Uğurlu, (2013), Kamu Açıkları, Parasal Büyüme ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1983-2008), Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, Şubat 2013, Cilt: 50, Sayı: 576, 71-83.
Seater, J. J. (1993), Ricardian Equivalence, Journal of Economic Literature,142- 190.
Wachel, P., J. Young (1987), Deficit Announcements and Interest Rates, American Economic Review, 77(5): 1007-12.

Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi-Cover

ISSN: 1306-6730
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2006
Yayıncı: Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi