At Yarışı Gelirlerinin Değerlendirilmesi ve Ona Etkili Faktörler

Bu çalışmada dünyanın ilk 10 ülkesinde 2002 ve 2011 yılları arasında at yarışı gelirlerinde meydana gelen değişimin 2012 reel değerleriyle incelenmesi ve Türkiye’de at yarış gelirleri üzerindeki belirleyicilerin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. İhtiyaç duyulan veriler Uluslararası At Yarış Otoriteleri Federasyonu ve Tür- kiye Jokey Kulübünden temin edilmiştir. Gelir endeksleri hesaplanırken 2002 yılı temel yıl olarak seçilmiştir. At yarış gelirleri üzerindeki belirleyicilerin tahimininde adım adım seçme ve eleme regresyon prosedürü kullanılmıştır. Reel değerlerle start başına ve at başına para ödülü endeksleri ilk 10 ülkenin ortalamasına göre sırasıyla 163 ve 172, Türkiye için ise sırasıyla 95 ve 78 olarak belirlenmiştir. Regresyon modeline dahil olan değişkenler istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuş ve para ödülü ve bahis gelirlerindeki toplam varyansın sırasıyla %91 (p<0.001) ve %22 ’sini (p<.05) açıklamışlardır. Özellikle Anerike Birleşik Devletleri, İngiltere ve Türkiye’de aşağı yönlü bir trend izleyen at yarışı gelirleri için alternatif kaynakların bulunmasına ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Türk at yarışı endüstrisinde uzun dönemli ekonomik sürdürülebilirliğin sağlanabilmesi için toplam start sayısı artırılabilir ve vergi oranları azaltılabilir

Anahtar Kelimeler:

At yarışı, ekonomi, endeks, gelir, model

An Evaluation of Horse Racing Revenues and Factors Affecting It*

The present study aimed to investigate periodic chances in horse racing revenues between the 2002 and 2011 with the real values of 2012 in the world’s top 10 countries, and to estimate the determinants of Turkey’s horse racing revenues. The present study was based on data obtained from International Fed- eration of Horce Racing Authorities and Turkish Jockey Club. Revenue indices were calculated using the 2002 as the base year. Stepwise regression procedures were used to estimate the determinants of horse racing revenues. According to the average of the top 10 countries per start and per horse prize money indices with real values were found 163 and 172, respectively; they were found 95 and 78 for Turkey, re- spectively. Variables included the regression models were found to be statistically significant predictors and the models explained 91% (p<0.001) and 22% (p<0.05) of the total variance for prize money payment and betting revenue, respectively. There is a need for finding alternative resources for horse racing revenues, which show a downward tendency especially in United States, United Kingdom and Turkey. In order to en- sure long–term economic sustainability in the Turkish horse racing industry, total number of starts could be increased, and tax rates could be reduced.

Keywords:

Economics, horse racing, index, model, revenue,

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