Yrd. Doç. Dr. Hatice ERKEKOĞLU, Doç. Dr. emine BİLGİLİ

Parasal Krizlerin Tahmin Edilmesi: Teori ve Uygulama

Son yıllarda dünyada yaşanan para krizleri, bu krizlerin nedenlerini açıklamaya çalışan teorilerin oluşturulmasına neden olmuştur. Bu teorik modelleri takiben, krizlerin ortaya çıkmasında ön uyarı yapabilecek göstergelerin neler olduğunu tespit etmeye çalışan bir çok ampirik çalışma yapılmaktadır. Genellikle bütçe açığı, uluslararası rezerv seviyesi, cari işlemler açığı, kamu borcu, ulusal kredilerdeki büyüme, işsizlik ve reel döviz kuru değişkenlerindeki olumsuz gelişmeler, krizin erken uyarı göstergeleri olarak ele alınmaktadır. Ancak hangi değişkenlerin kriz öncesi erken uyarı verdiği konusunda ortak bir görüş yoktur. Bu çalışmada para krizleri ile ilgili teorik görüşlerin yanı sıra ayırma (diskriminant) analizi kullanılarak, kriz yılları ile kriz olmayan yılları birbirinden ayırmaya yarayacak en önemli göstergeler ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Para krizi, para krizi teorileri, para krizinin öncü göstergeleri, son yıllarda yaşanan para krizleri, ayırma (diskriminant) analizi

PDF

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