Mali Yorgunluk: Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama

Bu çalışmanın amacı, mali reaksiyon fonksiyonundan yola çıkılarak Türkiye’de mali yorgunluk davranışının ortaya çıktığı borç yükü seviyesinin belirlenmesidir. Buna göre öncelikle Sıradan En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi aracılığıyla 1986-2019 dönemi yıllık verileri ile mali reaksiyon fonksiyonu hesaplanmıştır. Sonrasında son on yılın verilerinden faydalanarak faiz-büyüme diferansiyeli hesaplanmıştır. Her iki adımdan elde edilen değerlerin standart bütçe kısıdından türetilen bir takım eşitlikler aracılığıyla bir araya getirilmesi sonucunda ise mali yorgunluk davranışının ortaya çıktığı borç yükü seviyesi belirlenmiştir. Buna göre Türkiye’de mali yorgunluk davranışının, kamu borç yükünün yaklaşık olarak %44’e ulaşması durumunda ortaya çıktığı görülmektedir. Nihayetinde Türkiye’de ekonominin kırılgan yapısını ortadan kaldıracak ya da bu kırılganlığı azaltacak yapısal reformların gerçekleştirilmesinin elzem olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Mali Reaksiyon Fonksiyonu, Faiz-Büyüme Diferansiyeli, Mali Yorgunluk, Türkiye

Fiscal Fatigue: An Empirical Study on Turkey

The aim of the study is to determine the level of debt burden that fiscal fatigue behavior occurs through the financial reaction function in Turkey. Firstly, the fiscal reaction function was calculated for the period 1986-2019 by using the Ordinary Least Squares Method. Secondly, the interest-growth differential was calculated by using the data of the last ten years. And then, the values from both steps were aggregated through equations derived from the standard budget constraint, and the level of debt burden that fiscal fatigue behavior occurred was determined. Our findings show that the fiscal fatigue behavior occurs in Turkey when the public debt burden reaches approximately 44%. Consequently, it is essential to realize structural reforms that will either eliminate the fragile structure of the economy or reduce this fragility in Turkey.

Keywords:

Fiscal Reaction Function, Interest-Growth Differential, Fiscal Fatigue, Turkey,

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