İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ HİPOTEZİ OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN GEÇERLİ Mİ? YAPISAL KIRILMALI BİRİM KÖK ANALİZİ

İşsizlik serisinin zaman boyunca izlemiş olduğu yol ile ilgili histeri hipotezi, doğal oran hipotezi ve yapısalcı yaklaşım şeklinde üç görüş söz konusudur. Histeri hipotezi, işsizlik serisinin birim kök süreci izlediğini vurgulamaktadır. Doğal oran hipotezi ise işsizlik serisinin durağan olduğuna işaret ederken, yapısalcı yaklaşım kırılmalar ile birlikte işsizlik serisinin durağan olduğunu belirtmektedir. Bu çalışmada Lee ve Strazicich (2003) ile Im vd. (2005, 2010) tarafından geliştirilen yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testlerini kullanmaktayız. Histeri hipotezinin geçerliliğini hem ülke, hem de panel boyutunda incelemekteyiz. Sonuçlar, çoğu OECD ülkesi için işsizlik serilerinin histeri etkisi altında olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

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