YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI VE ADAPTİF NÖROBULANIK SİSTEMLER İLE 3. İSTANBUL HAVALİMANI TALEP TAHMİNİ VE TÜRK HAVA YOLLARI İÇ HAT FİLO OPTİMİZASYONU

Bu çalışmanın amacı, İstanbul Atatürk Havalimanı’na ikame olarak inşa edilen 3. İstanbul havalimanının gelecek yıllardaki yolcu ve yük talebini, İstanbul Atatürk Havalimanının geçmiş dönem verileri ile Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) ve Adaptif Ağ Tabanlı Bulanık Mantık Çıkarım Sistemi (ANFIS) yöntemleri kullanılarak tahmin etmek, muhtemel kapasiteye ışık tutmak ve ön görülen operasyon hacmini gerçekleştirebilmek adına muhtemel uçak filosunu finansal ve fiziksel kısıtlar kullanılarak senaryolar altında planlayabilmektir. Çalışmanın verileri Türk İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından derlenmiş olup normalizasyon sürecine tabi tutulmuştur. Hata ölçüm metodu olarak Kare Kök Ortalama Hata (RMSE) ve Hata Kareleri Toplamı (SSE) karşılaştırmalı olarak kullanılmış ve performansları değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları 3. Havalimanının önümüzdeki senelerdeki tahmini yolcu ve yük değerlerinin yanında muhtemel talebe karşılık verip veremeyeceği ve havalimanının performans karakteristiği hakkında önemli bilgiler içermektedir.

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